The Colgate Raiders and Wisconsin Badgers square off in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday night.
The Badgers are the No. 3 seed in the Midwest region despite backing into the tournament with back-to-back losses. Meanwhile, the Raiders are looking for their program's first March Madness victory after first-round exits in each of the past two years.
Here are our best free March Madness picks and predictions for Colgate vs.Wisconsin on Friday, March 18, with tipoff at 9:50 p.m. ET.
Colgate vs Wisconsin odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with Wisconsin installed as a 7.5-point favorite with the total at 139.5. The line had shifted to Wisconsin -8.5 but has now ticked back to -7.5 at most books by 3 p.m. ET on Thursday.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Colgate vs Wisconsin predictions
Predictions made on 3/17/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Colgate vs Wisconsin game info
• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:50 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Colgate vs Wisconsin betting preview
Injuries
Colgate: None.
Wisconsin: Lorne Bowman II G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Raiders are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Colgate vs. Wisconsin.
Colgate vs Wisconsin picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
This is the third straight NCAA tournament that Colgate has qualified for, and didn't look completely out of place in either of its first two appearances. The Raiders lost by only seven points against No. 2 seed Tennessee in 2019, and jumped out to an early lead against No. 3 seed Arkansas last year before collapsing under the Razorbacks' speedy tempo.
This is almost the same team as last year's Raiders squad with four returning starters and top reserve Jack Ferguson back in the fold. The Raiders had an ugly start to their campaign, losing 10 of their first 14 games. Luckily, they turned it on down the stretch and enter the tourney having won 15 in a row, going 10-5 against the spread during that stretch.
The Badgers finished the regular season atop the Big Ten standings but backed into the tourney, losing their season finale to last-place Nebraska (albeit with conference player of the year Johnny Davis sidelined in the first half). They followed up on that with a first-round loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament with Davis not looking anywhere near 100% as he went just 3-19 from the field.
Davis finished the regular season averaging 20 points and 8.2 rebounds per game on 44.6 FG%, and he should be at full strength tonight. He gives the Badgers an offensive burst that they haven't had in a while. That said, this is still a Greg Gard Wisconsin team that plays at a methodical pace, limits turnovers, and prides itself on stingy defense.
Colgate is 24th in the country with a 47.5 FG% and ranks second with a sizzling 40.1% from beyond the arc. The Raiders also share the ball extremely well (seventh in the country in assists per field goal made), and have all five starters averaging double-digits.
Wisconsin's slower tempo will play a big role in this contest with the Raiders also preferring a slower half-court style. A big reason why it couldn't keep up with the Razorbacks last year was that it was run off its feet. If this game can stay at the Badgers' speed, they should be able to keep things relatively close with their experienced sharpshooters.
Prediction: Colgate +7.5 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
The Raiders shoot at a terrific clip but they average 75.4 ppg and scored at an even lower level earlier this season against non-conference foes. They scored fewer than 70 points in nine of their first 12 games against Division 1 schools. Now they face their toughest test of the season against a Wisconsin squad that limits foes to 66.5 ppg and a 32.3 3PT%.
That said, the Badgers don't have a high-scoring team either, even with a healthy Davis in the lineup. Wisconsin has scored 70 points or fewer in nine of its last 12 games and ranks just 244th in the nation with a 42.5 FG% on the season.
With the Under 7-2 in Colgate's last nine games as an underdog, back this game to go below the total.
Prediction: Under 139.5 (-110)
Best bet
The Badgers might feature a high-scoring NBA prospect, while Colgate is filled with sizzling shooters, but both of these teams like to move the ball around and take their time while probing for an ideal look at the basket.
They don't run the floor on offense or pressure opposing ball-handlers on defense. That style suggests a lower-scoring game than the total predicts.
Pick: Under 139.5 (-110)
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