The Creighton Bluejays and San Diego State Aztecs face off against each other in the first round of the Midwest Region on Thursday night.
In a matchup between the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds, the line is predictably close but the Over/Under is especially interesting with the lowest total of the opening round of March Madness. Is that number too low?
We let you know what we think with our best March Madness picks and predictions for Creighton vs. San Diego State on Thursday, March 17, with tipoff at 7:27 p.m. ET.
Creighton vs San Diego State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line opened with San Diego State installed as a 2-point favorite with the Over/Under at 119. The line has bounced back and forth between -2 and -2.5 while the total has ticked up to 120.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Creighton vs San Diego State predictions
Predictions made on 3/16/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Creighton vs San Diego State game info
• Location: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:27 p.m. ET
• TV: truTV
Creighton vs San Diego State betting preview
Injuries
Creighton: Ryan Nembhard G (Out), Shereef Mitchell G (Out).
San Diego State: Keith Dinwiddie Jr. (Questionable), Keshad Johnson F (Probable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Aztecs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Creighton vs. San Diego State.
Creighton vs San Diego State picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Creighton Bluejays are fresh off a 54-48 loss to Villanova in the Big East Tournament finals. They have still won nine of their last 12 games and are 9-2 ATS in their previous 11 contests.
This is a massively different team than last year's version that made it to the Sweet 16 by shooting lights out and filling up the hoop. This year's Bluejays are 126th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom while ranking 17th on the defensive end of the floor.
It's remarkable how similar the Aztecs season has gone with SDSU also losing its conference tournament final in a low-scoring battle. The Aztecs have won 11 of their last 13 games and are 7-3 ATS in their previous 10.
They are marginally worse than Creighton offensively but even more dominant defensively, ranking second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and holding foes to a 38.2 FG% — the third-best number in the country.
With so many similarities between these teams, it's tough to find an edge. But while the Bluejays have been stout defensively, they do a poor job of forcing mistakes, ranking 331st in the nation in opponent turnovers per play.
The Aztecs on the other hand rank 28th in that category and will pressure a Creighton offense that turns the ball over at one of the worst rates in the country. A problem that will be exacerbated by the season-ending injury suffered by Bluejays guard Ryan Nembhard (11.3 points and a team-leading 4.4 assists per game) three weeks ago.
Prediction: San Diego State -2 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
This total is exceptionally low but SDSU has seen eight totals this season below 125 and the Under has gone 6-2 in those contests. And their March 3 clash with Fresno State only went above the total due to overtime after the two sides combined for just 108 points in regulation.
Both teams saw some ridiculously low-scoring games in their conference tournament finals with the Aztecs combining for 105 points with Boise State and Creighton totaling just 102 points with Villanova. And despite some low totals for the Bluejays lately, the Under has still cashed in four of their last five games.
Both schools also have a long-term tendency to put together ugly offensive games against quality opponents. The Under is 19-7-1 in the Aztecs' last 27 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600, while going 19-6-1 in Creighton's previous 26 contests in the same situation.
It's tough to bet a number this low but gun to our head, we'll lean towards the Under.
Prediction: Under 120.5 (-110)
Best bet
We might be ever-so-slightly leaning towards the Under but our best bet is actually the Over on the paltry first-half total of just 55.5.
As dominant as these teams are defensively they still combine to allow 58.9 ppg in the first half (31.3 ppg from Creighton and 27.6 ppg from SDSU). And as mediocre as they are offensively they still total 65.3 ppg (33.5 ppg from Creighton and 31.8 ppg from SDSU). It won't take much from either side to sneak above this number.
Pick: First half Over 55.5 (-110)
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