The No. 16 Georgia State Panthers are going to need more than the “luck of the Irish” on St. Patrick’s Day if they’re going to stun the top team in the NCAA Tournament. March Madness odds has the top-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs as hefty 20-plus point favorites for this Round of 64 opener Thursday.
The Bulldogs haven’t looked as dominant in recent outings – at least as far as oddsmakers are concerned – going just 1-4-2 against the spread in their last seven games. The Panthers are the champs of the Sun Belt Conference and bring a 10-game winning streak into the NCAA, boasting an 8-1-1 ATS clip along with them.
Here are our free March Madness picks and predictions for Georgia State vs. Gonzaga on March 17.
Georgia State vs Gonzaga odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Gonzaga hit the board as big as -24.5 for this opener and has settled in around -23.5 as a market consensus. The total opened at 148 points, climbed to as high as 150 at some shops, before settling down as low as 148 at some shops.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Georgia State vs Gonzaga predictions
- Prediction: Gonzaga -23 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 150 (-110)
- Best bet: Georgia State TT Under 62.5 (-110)
Predictions made on 3/15/2022 at 8:18 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Georgia State vs Gonzaga game info
• Location: Moda Center, Portland, OR
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 4:15 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Georgia State vs Gonzaga betting preview
Injuries
Georgia State: Nelson Phillips G (Questionable).
Gonzaga: Dominick Harris G (Questionable), Kaden Perry F (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Gonzaga is 8-14 Over/Under (64% Unders) in NCAA Tournament games since 2015-16. Find more NCAA betting trends for Georgia State vs. Gonzaga.
Georgia State vs Gonzaga picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
March Madness favorites of 20 or more points are 38-2 straight up since 2010-11 but just 18-21-1 ATS in that span.
Gonzaga is responsible for four of those lofty point spreads, going 2-2 ATS as monster tourney chalk. That includes opening round spreads of -28.5 and -33 in the previous two tournaments, which the Bulldogs took down with 40-point squashes.
This year’s Zags don’t warrant that same respect from bookies (though a 23-point spread is nothing to scoff at) and showed some flaws toward the end of the year.
They lost in the regular-season finale to rival St. Mary’s and posted a pair of wins in the WCC tournament that burned Gonzaga backers with poor second-half efforts on defense.
Was it just compliancy with the Bulldogs looking ahead to the Big Dance or is it something bettors should beware of in the Round of 64?
Georgia State is completely outmatched on offense and undersized, ranking 325th in average height versus the Bulldog's towering frontcourt of Chet Holmgren and Drew Timme.
The Panthers are sound defensively, ranked 27th in 2-point defense, but even if they force some misses from the Zags, GSU has to keep Gonzaga off the glass – not a strength for its program. (242nd in defensive rebound rate).
On top of grabbing offensive boards for extra possessions and putbacks, the Zags can also do damage from the perimeter. They don’t shoot a lot of 3-pointers but what they do take, they make.
The Bulldogs fire at a near 38% clip from beyond the arc for an average of more than eight triples per outing. Georgia State is great at packing the paint but gets roasted by good shooting teams, allowing foes to knock down 38% of shots from deep.
This may not be a pretty game for Gonzaga, especially if some of that complacency still lingers, but I’m not betting against the best team in the nation.
Prediction: Gonzaga -23 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
Georgia State is a guard-heavy lineup that while undersized in the halfcourt, can keep pace with the Zags up and down the floor. The Panthers are one of the best teams at taming transition offenses, which is the bread and butter of their opponents Thursday.
GSU drags opponents’ possessions deep into the shot clock and force everything to the outside. If Gonzaga struggles to generate quality looks in the halfcourt set and the triples aren’t falling, things could get scary for Mark Few’s guys.
Georgia State’s defense found another gear midway through Sun Belt competition and allowed 70 or more points only twice in their current 10-game winning streak.
On the other end, it will need to be perfect with the basketball in order to break the big bad Zags, with getting uncontested shots inside set to be a task.
The Panthers lug an effective field goal rate of just 45.1% (344th) into this game and don’t have the outside shooting chops to stretch a taller Bulldogs defense.
This total opened at 149.5 and has slimmed to 148, with Gonzaga expected to do the lion’s share of the scoring. Neither side will be able to do what it wants, leading to a Round of 64 Under.
Prediction: Under 150 (-110)
Best bet
Laying a pile of points with the Zags used to be a no brainer, but those recent bumps in the road give reason to pause. These No. 1 versus No. 16 matchups are always a headache to handicap, so we’re going to bank on the Bulldogs’ defense to travel well to Portland.
Georgia State is 245th in offensive efficiency and relies on plenty of pick-and-roll and ball screens to free up space. The Panthers don’t shoot well from distance and aren’t going to be able to get clear looks at the rim against Gonzaga's size, leaving the mid-range game as their only choice.
The Zags are the top defense in the country versus 2-point field goals, checking foes to only 41.6% from inside. They also rank among the top defensive rebounding teams and won’t allow any scraps to GSU, which is reliant on offensive rebounds as part of its offense (averaging 11 per game – 12th most in the land).
Pick: Georgia State Team Total Under 62.5 (-110)
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