The No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers (21-13) put away Wyoming in its First Four March Madness matchup on Tuesday and now will slot into a date with the No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels (25-7). The Gaels have put up a historic season by program standards, and are looking to get head coach Randy Bennett past the first weekend for the first time in over a decade.
Will the Hoosiers build off of their First Four win or will Saint Mary's keep their historic season afloat? Here are our best free March Madness picks and predictions for Indiana vs. St.Mary's on Thursday, March 22, with tipoff at 7:20 p.m. ET.
Indiana vs Saint Mary's odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Saint Mary's opened as 2.5 point favorites and is currently -3. The total opened at 126.5 and has stayed at that number.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Indiana vs Saint Mary's predictions
Predictions made on 3/16/2022 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Indiana vs Saint Mary's game info
• Location: Moda Center, Portland, OR
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Indiana vs Saint Mary's betting preview
Injuries
Indiana: None.
Saint Mary's: Jordan Geronimo F (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Hoosiers have gone 2-5 against the spread as underdogs of five points or less. Find more NCAA betting trends for Indiana vs. Saint Mary's.
Indiana vs Saint Mary's picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Indiana is essentially two entirely different teams when looking at its home and away splits, going 12-6 against the spread at home and just 3-8 record ATS in road games. Fortunately for the Hoosiers, they have played a perfect 5-0 against the spread in neutral site games, which includes their First Four win late Tuesday night against Wyoming.
Speaking of that late-night, the Hoosiers faced some travel difficulties following that game as they didn't depart Dayton until 4:00 a.m. ET and arrived in Portland around 9:00 a.m. ET. That is obviously less than ideal given they will have Saint Mary's ahead of them early Thursday night.
Saint Mary's is a more than respectable fifth seed, ranking 17th overall in KenPom adjusted efficiency, having played to a 5-2 record against tournament teams not named Gonzaga. To that point, Saint Mary's was able to take one of its three games against Gonzaga on the season, in which it won 67-57.
Indiana does not compare, having played to a 5-10 record against teams in the field. This is largely reflected in its 38th overall NET rating, given that the Hoosiers don't possess a winning record in either Quadrant 1 (4-8) or Quadrant 2 (4-4) games. Although Saint Mary's 4-7 Quadrant 1 record is nearly identical, the Gaels managed a much better 6-0 record in Quadrant 2 games.
Saint Mary's butters its bread on the defensive end, ranking ninth in KenPom defensive efficiency rankings. Although it resides in the same conference as Gonzaga, Saint Mary's managed to top the WCC in points allowed, rebounds surrendered, field goal attempts, 3-point attempts, and free throw attempts. The picture being painted is very clear: Saint Mary's played disciplined ball and clamped down on opposing offenses.
Its offense wasn't nearly as pretty, with the only statistical category it led in being free throw percentage (81%). That could come in handy in a game projected to be within three points, but it's hardly anything to write home about. The Gaels don't have a standout primary scorer, but 6-foot-11 245-pound Mattias Tass leads the team in scoring (12.6 PPG) and rebounding (6.0 RPG), with three other players averaging more than 10.0 points a contest.
Mike Woodson's team is not built that way, with junior forward Trayce Jackson-Davis leading the team with 18.4 PPG. Like Mattias Tass, Jackson-Davis also doubles as the team's leading rebounder, and that matchup figures to be the deciding factor for this game. Xavier Johnson (12.2 PPG, 38.3% 3P%) is the corresponding complementary sharpshooter but also leads the team in assists (5.1 per game).
Race Thompson rounds out Indiana's scoring trio (11.3 PPG, 7.6 RPG), but possesses the unique skill of having a smooth mid-range jumper which he is hitting at a 48% clip. The comparison may not be one-to-one, but Saint Mary's ability to handle the Drew Timme-Chet Holmgren Gonzaga frontcourt duo in its last two matchups bodes well for the Gaels' outlook against Indiana's duo.
After allowing Timme and Holmgren to shoot 61% from the field in their first matchup, Saint Mary's made adjustments and held the two to a combined 12-32 (38%) shooting across the next two games. If the Gaels can replicate that success, Indiana won't have much to work from.
Prediction: Saint Mary's -3 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
Saint Mary's is seeing a fair share of sub-130 totals like Thursday's number of 126.5 and played 7-2 to the Over in those games. Indiana has seen just three totals below 130 and played 2-1 to the Over.
Both teams have been facing slumps on offense as of late, however. The Hoosiers have failed to score 70 or more points in 10 of their last 13 games and the Gaels have failed to do it in six of their last seven. Saint Mary's will be nine days removed from playing once Thursday's game tips, and playing in an unfamiliar venue doesn't help. The added pressure from its successful season also plays a factor, as the Gaels are playing not only under the spotlight of the tournament, but also their highest seeding ever as well as their best ranking in the final AP poll since 1959.
Indiana, as mentioned previously, will be on a one-day turnaround, haven faced travel difficulties already. Outside of external factors, the Hoosiers also bring in a defensive unit that ranks just as good as Saint Mary's, ranked 18th and one spot ahead of the Gaels'.
It'd be a far cry for both of these defensive units to not show up, and banking on one good defensive performance between the two is likely more than enough to get under the number.
Prediction: Under 126.5 (-110)
Best bet
Gaels head coach Randy Bennett is looking to get his school past the first weekend of the tournament for the first time since 2010. Given what they have put forth this year already, this team is likely more fit to do so than any of those past iterations. Given the long layoff between games and Indiana's defensive strength, Saint Mary's may start slow on offense.
Luckily for Coach Bennett, the Gaels' own defensive strength should help keep the game within a manageable range at all times, and given how they have fared against elevated competition compared to the Hoosiers, Saint Mary's can be leaned on more reliably to pull a game out down the stretch.
And if it comes to it, Saint Mary's is a fantastic free throw shooting team and can help build on smaller margins in the closing moments of games.
Pick: Saint Mary's -3 (-110)
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