The No. 11 seed Iowa State Cyclones will face off against the No. 6 seed Louisiana State Tigers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday night.
The Tigers will be led by interim coach Kevin Nickelberry following the firing of Will Wade last weekend. March Madness odds have the Tigers to prevail despite that adversity, with college basketball betting lines opening with LSU as a 4.5-point favorite for this showdown in the Midwest Region.
Here are our free March Madness picks and predictions for Iowa State vs. LSU on March 18, with tipoff at 7:20 p.m. ET.
Iowa State vs LSU odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line opened with LSU installed as a 4.5-point favorite with the Over/Under at 125. Early money has come in on Iowa State and the Over, shifting the line to LSU -4 and moving the total all the way up to 128.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Iowa State vs LSU predictions
Predictions made on 3/17/2022 at 8 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Iowa State vs LSU game info
• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Iowa State vs LSU betting preview
Injuries
Iowa State: No injuries to report.
LSU: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cyclones are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Iowa State vs. LSU.
Iowa State vs LSU picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Will Wade was fired the day after LSU was eliminated by Arkansas in the SEC Tournament, following more allegations of misconduct. While that might make some people quick to fade the Tigers we're not so sure.
Wade has operated under that cloud of recruiting violations for years and the players (and the rest of the staff) might actually be able to breathe a sigh of relief now the drama is over.
Let's not forget that when the school suspended Wade just before the NCAA Tournament in 2019 for a sketchy wiretap recording, the Tigers went on to make the Sweet 16 under interim coach Tony Benford.
To be fair, the public might be less likely to believe in this particular LSU team. After all, the Tigers went through an up-and-down season, with highs including back-to-back wins against Kentucky and Tennessee and the lows culminating in a seven-game span where they went 1-6 straight up and against the spread.
That said, Iowa State has suffered far worse lows throughout the course of its campaign. The Cyclones opened their season with 12 straight wins in a tough out-of-conference schedule that included a double-digit victory against Iowa.
Then they lost a close battle against Baylor on New Year's Day before bouncing back with a gritty 51-47 against Texas Tech.
They must have decided that since they could beat the Red Raiders with 51 points they didn't have to score the rest of the year. The Cyclones have gone just 7-11 SU since then, most recently losing 72-41 against Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament last Thursday.
Iowa State is small, doesn't rebound well, shoots poorly from the charity stripe, and worst of all ranks outside the Top 300 when it comes to turnovers per offensive play. That's bad news against an LSU team that is fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom and leads the nation in steals per game.
The Tigers will pressure Iowa State's ball handlers into mistakes and with their up-tempo style will convert those turnovers into easy buckets on the other end. Back LSU on the spread.
Prediction: LSU -4 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
The Tigers play at a quick pace and have been capable on offense this season, with four players averaging double-digits. But the Cyclones have been solid defensively, limiting opponents to 63 points per game.
On the other end of the floor, Iowa State is pretty much the unholy trinity of low-scoring teams. It plays at a slow pace (232nd in adjusted tempo), shoots extremely poorly from everywhere (214th in true shooting percentage), and turns the ball over more than Russell Westbrook on amphetamines.
This is a team that has scored fewer than 45 points in four games over the last two months, which sounds like a statistic dredged up from before the shot clock era.
Now it faces off against the Tigers who hold foes to just 63.5 ppg on 38.7% shooting. Even with a low game total of just 128.5, I don't see the Cyclones doing enough to push this game Over the total.
Prediction: Under 128.5 (-110)
Best bet
Sure the Tigers have been inconsistent this season but they've still been much better over the last two months than the Cyclones whose offense has looked beyond pathetic.
I can't help but think this line reflects the perceived turmoil of the Tigers coaching upheaval which might be a tad overblown in what looks like a juicy matchup.
Don't overestimate the value of Wade's dismissal and grab the Tigers at -4.
Pick: LSU -4 (-110)
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