Jacksonville State vs Auburn Midwest Region Picks: Tigers Maul Gamecocks in First Round

The No. 15 seed Jacksonville State Gamecocks face off against the No. 2 seed Auburn Tigers in the first round of March Madness on Friday afternoon.

The Tigers will try to bounce back from a disappointing performance in the SEC Tournament tournament and oddsmakers expect them to take out their frustration on the Gamecocks, with college basketball betting lines opening with Auburn as a 15.5-point favorite.

Here are our best free March Madness picks and predictions for Jacksonville State vs. Auburn on March 18.

Jacksonville State vs Auburn odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Auburn opened as a 16-point favorite for this showdown with the total at 137.5. Early money has come in on Jacksonville State and the Over, shifting the line to Auburn -15.5 and moving the total to 138.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Jacksonville State vs Auburn predictions

• Prediction: Auburn -15.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 138.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Jacksonville State Under 61.5 (-115)

Predictions made on 3/17/2022 at 8 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Jacksonville State vs Auburn game info

• Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC
• Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:40 p.m. ET
• TV: truTV

Jacksonville State vs Auburn betting preview

Injuries

Jacksonville State: No injuries to report.
Auburn: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Jacksonville State vs. Auburn.

Jacksonville State vs Auburn picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Tigers laid a stinker in the first half of their SEC Tournament semifinal matchup with Texas A&M and, despite a 25-11 run to end the game, they couldn't close the gap. That was an ugly way to go for an Auburn team that had ended the regular season with the best record in the conference and the No. 4 spot in the AP Top 25.

The Gamecocks are also coming off a bitter loss in their conference tournament semifinals after putting up just 18 points in the first half against Jacksonville and falling by a final score of 54-51. Luckily for Jacksonville State, the ASUN Tournament-winning Bellarmine Knights couldn't qualify for the NCAA Tournament, so the bid was handed to the regular-season champion Gamecocks. 

Prior to their loss in the semis, the Gamecocks had reeled off five wins in a row, going 5-0 ATS during that span.

The Tigers have struggled to cover the spread lately going just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games, but they were one of the best ATS teams in the country earlier in the season when they were beating up on out-of-conference foes. Through their first 10 games of the season, Auburn had seven wins by at least 17 points. 

The Tigers have a pair of game-changing big men in Walker Kessler (11.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 4.5 blocks per game) and Jabari Smith (17.1 ppg, 7 rpg). And while their shaky guard play could cost them dearly later in the bracket, it shouldn't come into play against a Gamecocks side that doesn't force turnovers.

Jacksonville State makes plenty of mistakes of its own (ranking 285th in the country in turnovers per offensive play) and while it had been one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country before the ASUN tournament the Gamecocks have gone ice-cold from deep since. 

They've hit just 20.5% of their shots from beyond the arc in their last two games and now face an Auburn team that limits foes to a 31.2 3-point percentage. If the Gamecocks can't score outside, they'll be forced to attack inside, where the Tigers rank fourth in the nation with a 42.6 2PT%. Take the Tigers to win and cover. 

Prediction: Auburn -15.5 (-110)

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Over/Under analysis

Jacksonville State allows 66.6 ppg on an impressive 40.7 opponent FG%. While the Gamecocks likely won't have quite that same level of success against Auburn's loaded lineup, they should at least be able to slow them down somewhat, especially since they rank just 276th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom.

While JSU lost an out-of-conference game against Alabama early in the season, it was at least able to do one thing that few teams around the country were able to: calm down the Tide's frantic pace. 

Auburn is even more impressive defensively, allowing 67 ppg on 38.5 FG%, and they will be able to give JSU fits on offense. Take the Under. 

Prediction: Under 138.5 (-110)

Best bet

Auburn has been a bit inconsistent offensively lately thanks to poor perimeter play, but its defense has still been showing up. The Tigers have allowed 67 points or fewer in regulation in five of their last six games and now they take on a slow-paced Gamecocks team that should be overwhelmed with length and athleticism. 

With the Gamecocks' outside shooting abandoning them at the worst time, they'll be hard-pressed to find success inside against Kessler and company. Over the last month, Jacksonville State has had some rough offensive performances against Jacksonville, Central Arkansas, and Stetson.

If the Gamecocks couldn't buy a bucket against those guys, they won't be able go Over their team total versus the Tigers. 

Pick: Jacksonville State Team Total Under 61.5 (-115)

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