March Madness is known for its contrast in styles and basketball bettors get a nice mismatched matchup when the No. 8 Boise State Broncos take on the No. 9 Memphis Tigers in the West Region of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday.
The Broncos, champs of the Mountain West, are one of the best defensive programs in the country and grind down opponents with their glacial-paced style of hoops.
Memphis, on the other hand, likes to turn up the tempo and attack in transition, sitting Top 50 in points per game in the country, and sitting as the favorites in the opening March Madness odds for this matchup.
Here are our free March Madness picks and predictions for Memphis vs. Boise State on March 17.
Memphis vs Boise State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Books were all over the place with this opening spread. Some shops opened as low as Memphis -1.5 but that has since ticked up as high as -2.5 at some operators. The total opened at a low 132.5 and has climbed to 134.5 points.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Memphis vs Boise State predictions
Predictions made on 3/14/2022 at 4:03 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Memphis vs Boise State game info
• Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:45 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Memphis vs Boise State betting preview
Injuries
Memphis: Emoni Bates F (Questionable).
Boise State: Keith Dinwiddie G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Boise State Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. Find more NCAA betting trends for Memphis vs. Boise State.
Memphis vs Boise State picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Memphis found out the hard way how tough it is to beat a team three times in one season, falling flat on its face versus Houston in the AAC tournament final – losing 71-53 – after beating the Cougars in both matchups in the regular season.
Those run-ins with Houston are valuable to bettors prepping for this Round of 64 matchup with Boise State. Much like the Cougars, the Broncos are a team anchored by a methodical tempo on offense. They rank 307th in tempo at KenPom.com and suck all the energy out of the gym, limiting their opponents’ possessions and then playing hard-nosed defense in the halfcourt.
BSU sits No. 17 in adjusted defensive efficiency and has checked opponents to an average of less than 61 points per contest on the year, disrupting passing lanes and not allowing teams to run through their playbook with ease.
The Broncos are big and experienced, with one of the oldest rosters in the country – a stark contrast to the youthful Tigers. While Memphis may be able to put them on their heels with quickness, they have been able to throw the breaks on transition teams and will look to wear down UOFM in the halfcourt on both ends.
Boise State isn’t the most explosive offense, opting to do battle on the blocks. It runs a ton of post-up offense and fights on the glass, pulling down an average of 8.8 offensive boards per contest.
Memphis is long and athletic but will get pushed around by a bulkier BSU frontcourt. The Tigers give up plenty of rebounds under their own rim as well, allowing an average of 9.8 offensive rebounds to opponents for a defensive rebound rate ranked 279th.
Boise State ranks 35th in extra scoring chances and its best defense against the Memphis’ transition is getting inside and shooting high percentage shots, therefore forcing the Tigers to inbound the ball on possessions.
Prediction: Boise State +2.5 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
One of the biggest factors driving Memphis’ turnaround midway through AAC play was improved play on defense. The Tigers won 10 of their final 11 conference games and held seven of those foes to less than 65 points.
Penny Hardaway’s team enters the NCAA Tournament ranked 31st in advanced defensive efficiency and limiting foes to a 39.6% shooting clip overall, backed by rim protector Jalen Duren. The 6-foot-11 freshman is sending back 2.2 shots per game and will be busy against BSU’s frontcourt.
The Over/Under for this Round of 64 opener was set at 132 points, indicating that bookies were giving the Broncos the nod in terms of setting the pace for this game.
If it's forced to play in the halfcourt, Memphis could stall out versus a BSU defense that limits rivals to only 9.8 assists and an assist per field goal made rate of 0.433 – 28th best.
The Tigers are reliant on ball movement when they can’t get out and run, averaging 16.1 assists and an assist per field goal made rate of 0.596 (20th).
Prediction: Under 134 (-110)
Best bet
There’s a shot that Memphis’ depth and athleticism wear down Boise State in the second half of this matchup. And because of that, the Broncos will come out early and look to land body blows with an aggressive interior attack in the first half, aiming to sap some of that energy.
Memphis is a very sound defense in the opening frame, allowing an average of only 30.9 first-half points on the year (before buckling for almost 39 in the 2H) while Boise State limits foes to just 28.3 points in the opening 20 minutes.
The first few minutes of this Round of 64 game will be a feeling-out period and Big Dance jitters could also impact both teams on offense. Second-half adjustments will decide the full-game spread and total, but we’re going to keep this Over/Under wager confined to the first 1,200 seconds of play.
Pick: First-half total Under 62.5 (-110)
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