When it comes to predicting Final Four teams, there’s one magic metric that points to potential March Madness semifinalists: advanced defensive efficiency.
And that’s where we find the No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders, atop that much-ballyhooed KenPom statistic. The Red Raiders are big favorites in their Round of 64 opener, facing the No. 14 Montana State Bobcats in San Diego on Friday. The Bobcats ran the table in the Big Sky and put their offense to the test against TTU’s elite defense.
Dive into our free March Madness picks and predictions for Montana State vs. Texas Tech on March 18.
Montana State vs Texas Tech odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Books opened Texas Tech as a 15.5-point chalk and that has slimmed a bit to -15. The total opened at 129 points and has slowly climbed to as high as 131.5 at some shops.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Montana State vs Texas Tech predictions
- Prediction: Texas Tech -15 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 129.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Montana State 1H +8.5 (-110)
Predictions made on 3/15/2022 at 2:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Montana State vs Texas Tech game info
• Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
• Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:45 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Montana State vs Texas Tech betting preview
Injuries
Montana State: None.
Texas Tech: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-2 in Red Raiders’ last nine NCAA Tournament games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Montana State vs. Texas Tech.
Montana State vs Texas Tech picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Bobcats can put up points and have a deep roster with eight players averaging five points per game or higher. Montana State has a nice inside-out approach on offense, shooting high-quality looks from inside while also stretching defenses with a 3-point touch when needed.
The one area in which MSU thrives is attacking the rim and drawing whistles, forcing foes into 20.3 personal fouls per contest (third-most) and making the most of those trips to the stripe. The Bobcats attempt 22 free throws and make 16.5 of those per outing, upping that to an average of 20 FTM during their run through the Big Sky tournament.
The Red Raiders may not be as easy to coax into foul trouble as recent opponents. Texas Tech holds foes to just 44.3% shooting on 2-point field goal attempts and defends the paint better than most. It will apply its infamous pressure defenses on an MSU offense that really hasn’t been tested much during conference play.
Texas Tech forces more than 16 turnovers per game, 8.2 off steals, and is just fine facing an isolation attack with bigger guards than the Bobcats who can matchup in one-on-one situations. The Red Raiders are also one of the best communicating defenses in the country and handle switches and hedges on pick-and-roll sets with ease.
If Montana State can’t draw the fouls or find those rare seams in this TTU defense, frustration will lead to forced shots and poor decisions, which the Red Raiders translate into buckets in a hurry.
Prediction: Texas Tech -15 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
If Montana State can get the calls from the officials, then this total holds good value for the Over, as MSU will pour in plenty of points with the clock stopped.
Texas Tech, however, doesn’t find itself in foul trouble often, which is even more impressive considering how aggressive its pressure defense is. The Red Raiders did send Kansas to the foul line 32 times in the Big 12 championship game, but overall, TTU has done well to tame aggressive rim-attacking teams like Texas, Oklahoma and West Virginia.
Defensively, the Bobcats don’t let foes find their flow, holding them to only 9.3 assists per game and an assist per field goal rate of just 0.394 — fifth-lowest in the country. When Texas Tech isn’t scoring points off turnovers, it’s running a lot of pick-and-roll and creating chances off cuts. Montana State could gum up the works, at least early on until TTU makes some second-half adjustments.
Prediction: Under 129.5 (-110)
Best bet
Montana’s scoring depth and aggressive approach could match TTU’s intensity on the defensive end and put the Red Raiders on their heels in the opening half.
The Bobcats came out swinging in the Big Sky tournament, averaging 36.7 points in the opening 20 minutes of action, including a 41-point 1H eruption in the title game versus Northern Colorado. Montana State brings a hot hand in the NCAA, having shot 42% from 3-point range in the conference tournament.
The Bobcats will show their most life in those opening minutes before TTU’s pressure and deep rotation take their toll after the halftime break. But considering the first-half spread is frontloaded at MSU +8.5, we’ll take Montana State to put a scare in the Red Raiders early on.
Pick: Montana State 1H +8.5 (-110)
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