Norfolk State vs Baylor East Region Picks: Bears Cruise to First-Round Victory

The Baylor Bears (26-6) return to March Madness as a one seed and are looking to become the first team to win back-to-back national championships since Billy Donovan's Florida Gators did it in 2006 and 2007. Ahead of them are the No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans (24-6), who won the MEAC tournament and regular-season championships.

Although just one 16 seed has won outright, there is always plenty of intrigue with respect to the spread, and March Madness odds have the Spartans pegged as 21-point underdogs. Can Norfolk State keep it within the large margin or will Baylor start their repeat campaign with a statement drubbing?

Continue reading for free March Madness picks and predictions for the No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 16 Norfolk State matchup on Thursday, March 17th.

Norfolk State vs Baylor odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Baylor opened as a 20-point favorite and has since moved to -21. The total opened at 136.5 and moved as high as 138.5, but has since come down to 137.5 by the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Norfolk State vs Baylor predictions

• Prediction: Baylor -21 (-105)
• Prediction: Under 137.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Baylor -21 (-105)

Predictions made on 3/14/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Norfolk State vs Baylor game info

• Location: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 2:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS

Norfolk State vs Baylor betting preview

Injuries

Norfolk State: None.
Baylor: Kendall Brown G (Probable), LJ Cryer G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Norfolk State has played 7-3 to the Under in non-conference games this year. Find more NCAA betting trends for Norfolk State vs. Baylor.

Norfolk State vs Baylor picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

If you would have asked Baylor fans how they felt about their potential to repeat as national champions on the night of February 5th, you would have likely gotten a mix of death glares and self-deprecating laughter. Baylor was fresh off a 24-point beatdown thanks to Kansas and were losers of four of eight at that time. Wide-ranging injuries plagued the team and the Bears seemingly could not get their feet under them.

But the signs were always there that they were the national champions for a reason. They started 15-0, picking up wins along the way by holding Villanova to 36 points or by putting up 77 against a previously undefeated Iowa State team that was allowing just 56.1 points per game at that point. And they reminded everyone — and possibly themselves — of that potential by finishing the regular season 7-1 after that embarrassment against Kansas — a finish that netted them the distinction of being regular-season co-champions of the Big 12.

Then came the Big 12 tournament, a chance for Baylor to keep the momentum going and earn the undisputed right to call themselves the conference champions. Instead, they lost in the opening round to Oklahoma, putting up an abysmal 3 for 22 (13.6%) from three while allowing the Sooners to go 13 for 21 (52.4%) despite being the second-best two-way perimeter team in the Big 12, behind only Kansas (go figure).

Now, the odds of Baylor putting up that type of perimeter performance on Thursday should be slim. Norfolk State's 3-point percentage of 34.8% ranks 120nd in the nation, which is admittedly above average, but they managed that mark against the second-easiest conference schedule according to KenPom adjusted efficiency metrics. Not just second-easiest amongst tournament teams, second-easiest in the entire country.

The one area the Spartans can potentially exploit is at the rim. They managed a 64.4% field goal percentage there, which was good for 42nd in the nation, and Baylor allowed a 66.8% clip — the seventh-highest mark out of 358 teams. The important distinction, though, is that Baylor's "No Middle" defense is entirely about limiting volume in the lane, which is why they allow the ninth-lowest percentage of shots at the rim. With that in mind, it will require some extensive creativity on Norfolk State's end to get the looks it feeds off of.

To the Spartans' credit, they do have a well-rounded roster, at least by MEAC standards. Senior guards Joe Bryant (16.8 ppg) and Jalen Hawkins (13.4 ppg) lead the team in scoring and manage to be decent perimeter threats (34.4% and 35.8%, respectively), but the team would certainly benefit by funneling their team-leading three-point volume to the more efficient Dana Tate (9.9 ppg, 44.0% 3P%) and Christian Ings (9.1 ppg, 43.8% 3P%). The 6-foot-8, 220-pound Kris Bankston (11.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg) fared well in the MEAC by shooting 77% at the rim, but is an undersized leading big man by traditional standards and may struggle against someone like the 6-foot-10, 245-pound Flo Thamba.

Prediction: Baylor -21 (-105)

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Over/Under analysis

Given the intricacies of the matchup, there is a very real chance here that Baylor can put up one of its signature defensive performances and completely shut Norfolk State down, much like it did against Central Arkansas (47 points allowed), Stanford (48), Kansas State (49), and even Villanova (37).

Norfolk State managed a pretty even totals record during conference play at 8-7 to the Over but played heavily to the Under in non-conference games (7-3). The problem, however, is the Bears have been able to run up the score as heavy favorites and essentially get to the Over by themselves. In games where they were favored by 20 or more points, they have played 4-1 to the Over and have averaged 95.6 points in those games.

But it is widely known that the first round of the Big Dance can be heavily skewed towards slower starts. This is largely a product of teams coming off of longer breaks between games, playing on a neutral court with unfamiliar shooting sightlines, and the nerves that come with the spectacle of March Madness. For example, last year the First Four and Round of 64 games went 22-13 to the Under.

Given Baylor's first-round exit in the Big 12 tournament, the team will have gone a week without playing when Thursday's game tips off. The Bears are also the 14th-ranked defense, according to KenPom, which will just make any of Norfolk State's offensive shortcomings that much more pronounced.

Prediction: Under 137.5 (-110)

Best bet

It is admittedly a little bold to take the second-largest spread to start the wildest weekend of the sports year, a time during which underdogs are regularly pulling off upsets or, at the very least, making games heart-achingly close.

And a lot of noise will be made between now and tip-off about how Norfolk State possesses a stellar 17-9-1 ATS record, which ranks 11th in the country. But the fact of the matter is that it is ultimately a very weak team in this field. In the toughest test on its entire schedule, Norfolk State lost 88-48 to Xavier, who ranks 60th in KenPom adjusted efficiency and did not manage to make the Big Dance. Baylor, for reference, ranks fifth and is obviously the top-seeded team in the East region.

And as mentioned, Baylor has a lot of edges, and Norfolk State is as weak as a 16 seed can be. The MEAC is the second-weakest conference by RPI and Norfolk State's undersized roster and their typical paths to victory are just not promising against this Baylor team.

There will be plenty of time in the coming weekends for madness to prevail but unfortunately for Norfolk State, this is not one of them.

Pick: Baylor -21 (-105)

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