Notre Dame Fighting Irish fans need a splash of Bailey’s in their morning coffee after a late-night nerve-wracking double-OT win over Rutgers in the First Four just to reach March Madness.
The No. 11 Irish now face a quick travel turnaround from Ohio to San Diego and short rest before facing the No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide in the Round of 64 on Friday. Oddsmakers have installed the Crimson Tide as 4-point NCAA Tournament betting favorites.
Check out our free March Madness picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs. Alabama on March 18.
Notre Dame vs Alabama odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Alabama opened as low as -3.5 and quickly got bet up to -4 with bettors leaning into the tough situational spot for Notre Dame. The total hit the board at 153 and is down to 151.5 points at the time of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Notre Dame vs Alabama predictions
Predictions made on 3/17/2022 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Notre Dame vs Alabama game info
• Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
• Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 4:15 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Notre Dame vs Alabama betting preview
Injuries
Notre Dame: None.
Alabama: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Crimson Tide are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as favorites. Find more NCAA betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Alabama.
Notre Dame vs Alabama picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Two extra periods are taxing, especially when you’re living out of a suitcase, but Notre Dame is still a tough draw for the Crimson Tide.
The Fighting Irish got sucked into a weird first half versus Rutgers on Wednesday, which can happen against Big Ten teams. However, the second half of that contest looked very much like the Fighting Irish basketball bettors have become accustomed to. They outscored the Scarlet Knights 33-28 in those final 20 minutes, tightening up on turnovers and making shots from outside.
Alabama brings a different challenge in terms of tempo. The Crimson Tide are No. 13 in pace and thrive in the open court, looking to push the ball in transition and attack the rim. They can definitely get the Fighting Irish on their heels but find themselves playing out of control at times, which leads to careless giveaways (almost 15 turnovers per game).
Notre Dame has tangled with a few up-tempo teams this year, most notably slowing down North Carolina’s potent offensive attack in conference play and taming Kentucky’s transition back in non-conference competition. The Irish can slow Bama down and force the Tide to play in a halfcourt set, which ranked out 314th in terms of opponents’ average length of possession (18.2).
In that halfcourt, the Crimson Tide look lost. In their last three outings, the Tide took on Texas A&M, LSU, and Vanderbilt — all of which rank out 93rd or slower in tempo — and lost each of those outings, shooting a collective 40.1% from the floor and coughing the ball up a total of 58 times.
And while many are fading Notre Dame on the short turnaround coming off two OTs, I see that “March Madness” mindset as an edge against an Alabama side that hasn’t played in more than a week.
Prediction: Notre Dame +4 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
A big part of Notre Dame slipping the speed bumps under Alabama is its efficiency on offense. The Fighting Irish ranked 28th in the country in effective field goal percentage, working the ball around and plowing through the shot clock before taking a high-percentage look at the basket.
The Irish have the ability to go big with 6-foot-10 Nate Laszewski, so look for a good amount of post-entry playbook and cuts into space. Laszewski is also a nice defensive counter to Bama’s 7-footer Charles Bediako.
If Notre Dame can score those close-range looks, the Crimson Tide must start their offense off the inbounds and won’t have the opportunities to break in transition. What’s more, the Irish are one of the best ball control teams in the country — which means no points off turnovers — and rebound extremely well, so not many offensive putbacks for a Crimson Tide attack that thrives on second-chance points from offensive rebounds (11.6 per game and No. 6 in the nation).
The year’s Alabama team doesn’t have the same 3-point touch as Nate Oats’ squad from last year’s tourney run, shooting less than 31% from distance on the season. Alabama was ice cold from beyond the arc entering the NCAA, firing at a dismal 27.6% clip over their last three games.
Prediction: Under 151.5 (-110)
Best bet
Alabama does have the potential to turn this game into a track meet if the Irish are feeling the effects of Wednesday’s marathon with Rutgers and the ups-and-downs of air travel.
However, I do see Notre Dame carrying that intensity over to the first 20 minutes of this Round of 64 game, putting a stagnant Alabama squad on its heels in the first half. Then maybe the Tide take over.
The Irish got off to a bad start versus Rutgers on Wednesday and coach Mike Brey laid into his team after allowing the Scarlet Knights to score 41 points in the first half — almost 10 points higher than their season average. Notre Dame’s defense was transformative in the second half, and that will carry over into this matchup as Brey will be preaching a strong start.
There are a few ways you could take this. Alabama 1H team total Under 36.5 is an option as is Notre Dame +2. But we’re going to swing big in case we hit it with Irish 1H moneyline at +135.
Pick: Notre Dame first half moneyline +135
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