The No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish needed no luck to get past Alabama on Friday and set up this Round of 32 run-in with the No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the West Region.
But considering TTU’s smothering defensive intensity and the fact the Irish are playing their third game of March Madness after escaping the First Four with a win in double overtime, Notre Dame could use a sprinkle of good fortune and also a few cans of Red Bull to hang with the Red Raiders.
Here are our free March Madness picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech on March 20.
Notre Dame vs Texas Tech odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Texas Tech opened as low as -7 and jumped to as high as -7.5 at some shops. The total hit the board at 133 points and is down to 132.5 at some sportsbooks.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Notre Dame vs Texas Tech predictions
Predictions made on 3/19/2022 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Notre Dame vs Texas Tech game info
• Location: Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl, San Diego, CA
• Date: Sunday, March 20, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Notre Dame vs Texas Tech betting preview
Injuries
Notre Dame: None.
Texas Tech: Clarence Nadolny G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Red Raiders are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games versus a team with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech.
Notre Dame vs Texas Tech picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Most folks counted out Notre Dame against the up-tempo Crimson Tide after playing a 2OT marathon versus Rutgers and having to travel twice before the Round of 64. However, the Irish were already in that “madness” mentality while Alabama – which hadn’t played in eight days – looked sluggish and sloppy in a 78-64 loss to Notre Dame.
That intensity edge has flown out the window for this Round of 32 outing.
“Fighting” may be a stretch for the Irish versus TTU, especially if Texas Tech comes out swinging like it did in the opener with Montana State. The Red Raiders quickly jumped out to a 20-plus point lead and finished the day shooting an insane 67% from the floor, including a lights-out 12 for 20 from beyond the arc.
That offensive outpouring likely won’t repeat itself, even with Notre Dame running on fumes at this point. But game in and game out, you can count on Texas Tech’s defense to show up.
We started to see cracks in a tired Irish team versus Alabama, most notably in turnovers. Notre Dame is among the best ball control teams in the country (just 10.4 turnovers per outing) but coughed it up 18 times to the Crimson Tide in the Round of 64.
Texas Tech turns up the heat like a July day in Lubbock, ranked out 14th in forcing turnovers and recording more than eight steals per game. As the Irish get tired they’ll get careless, and those turnovers translate into early buckets on the other end for TTU.
The Red Raiders are the top team in KenPom.com’s “Holy Grail” of March Madness metrics – adjusted defensive efficiency – and if they can complement that defending with even half the offensive effort from Friday’s win, covering this 7.5-point spread won’t be an issue.
Prediction: Texas Tech -7 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
Perhaps the best approach for Mike Brey’s team if – and when – they get tired Sunday, is to rest on offense and work hard on defense.
Notre Dame’s offensive approach isn’t too far off that philosophy. It runs a very methodical playbook, anchored in short dribble drive attacks at the elbow and kick outs, while running cutters underneath. It all takes up a good chunk of shot clock, with the Fighting Irish ranked out 262nd in average offensive possession.
Defensively, Brey’s crew plugs up the passing lanes and tries to keep everything to the outside. Notre Dame defends against penetrating passes and gums up the works in the halfcourt, allowing less than 12 total assists per game and boasts a low 0.454 assists to field goal made rate on defense. That drags opponents deep into the shot clock as well.
Texas Tech is very sound offensively, but not as good as Friday’s performance would have you believe. The Red Raiders aren’t normally that hot from the perimeter – picking up just 25.4% of their total points from beyond the arc – and are also a patient playbook with the basketball, aiming for entry passes in the interior.
Scoring could very much be at a premium in the second half, when TTU’s constant hounding takes it toll and Notre Dame’s legs start to get heavy which leads to jumpers being left short. This Over/Under total is diminutive for a reason.
Prediction: Under 133 (-110)
Best bet
The plucky Fighting Irish could hang around for the first half of this game, but TTU will eventually wear down Notre Dame over 40 minutes.
Coach Brey doesn’t go too far down the bench – even at the best of times (ranked 320th in bench minutes) – and has used a very short seven-man rotation in the tournament so far, with the starters logging major floor time.
On the flipside, Red Raiders head coach Mark Adams isn’t shy about dipping into his reserves, running out the 38th most minutes for bench players in the country. Texas Tech played 14 different guys in the blowout over Montana State, with the starting five topping out at about 25 minutes.
As mentioned, the Irish could fight for the first half but there’s only so much left in the tank after Notre Dame’s trying path to the Round of 32. And TTU is the last team you want to face in that situation.
Pick: Texas Tech -7 (-110)
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