Pittsburgh vs Iowa State Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Cummings' Hot Shooting Continues

There's always a that wins a play-in game and then defeats the No. 6 seed in the next round. Will that happen when Pittsburgh meets Iowa State?

The Panthers got here off a last-second win and the hot shooting of Nelly Cummings, with 15 points and two first-half 3-pointers.

Iowa State has had another solid season under TJ Otzelberger. The Cyclones went through a dry spell in February, when they lost four straight games, but it came in the strongest conference in college basketball. Their reputation sees them enter this one as 3.5-point favorites on the March Madness odds board.

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State. For more, check out our March Madness picks.

Pittsburgh vs Iowa State best odds

Pittsburgh vs Iowa State picks and predictions

Iowa State is a high-variance team because its offensive structure struggles from time to time. Teams typically go compact against it because of its lack of shooting. As a result, it’s forced to use high ball screens that ultimately end in jump shots. 

Pitt isn't a good defense, but it'll do enough to force Iowa State into jump shots — luckily for the Panthers, they have better shooters than Iowa State. The Panthers have averaged .99 points per possession on spot-up sets, posting an eFG of 51%+, while the Cyclones have averaged .88 points per possession and posted an eFG of 47%. 

We will target that shooting success in the prop market with Nelly Cummings. 

Cummings was stellar in the First Four again against Mississippi State, where Pitt faced a schematically similar defense. I expect him to have success here as well. 

Targeting Iowa State is best done beyond the arc and by getting Jaren Holmes in spot-up defending situations. Cummings can get those matchups, and by doing that, he'll have a player guarding him that has allowed nearly 50% shooting in spot-up sets. He's easily the best shooter on this team, and I expect he'll take advantage here.

In addition to that, Cummings will find himself with the ball in his hands a lot. He's one of the highest usage players on the Panthers team, and if Iowa State is going to do anything, it will cause you to work deep into the shot clock. Cummings is comfortable there, as his teammates look for him in low-shot-clock situations and get out of the way. 

In taking Cummings to go Over his points total, we're asking him to reach his season average of 11 points per game, and he's gone Over that number in two of his last three. 

Getting that ball into his hands feels like the best path to a possible victory for the Panthers, and we're going to ride that.

My best bet: Nelly Cummings Over 10.5 points (-106 at FanDuel) 

Pittsburgh vs Iowa State spread analysis

I have no interest in a side here and that position was strengthened when my projections made Iowa State just a 3.5-point favorite. 

The Cyclones are a difficult team to handicap due to their shot-making variance. Likewise, Pittsburgh can get some hot shooting performances from Cummings, among others, but you're so reliant on those jump shots going in. It will get few clean, easy looks around the rim against this Iowa State team. 

My gut says that the Panthers' athleticism and borderline elite shot-making are enough to keep them within the spread, however, more is needed to have a play on a side here. 

Pittsburgh vs Iowa State Over/Under analysis

I lean to the Over because I expect a close game throughout that will undoubtedly see a lot of trips to the free-throw line. 

Iowa State fouls nearly more than any team in the country, with its foul rate of 40 percent higher than 337 division one teams. There will be an emphasis on Pittsburgh to speed this up, too. It has the third-best efficiency rate in transition, and no team wants to spend most of a game against Iowa State trying to execute in the halfcourt. 

Overs have been a profitable bet in Pittsburgh games this season. Its games have gone Over in four straight after a straight-up win. In addition, its games have gone Over in four straight games at a neutral site. 

Pittsburgh vs Iowa State betting trend to know

Nelly Cummings has scored Over 10.5 points in two of his last three games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State.

Pittsburgh vs Iowa State game info

Pittsburgh vs Iowa State key injuries

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