Providence vs Kentucky Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Reeves Rains on Friars

The last time Kentucky won an NCAA Tournament game, the word Covid wasn’t known outside the science community. Now, Oscar Tshiebwe and company look to end that run and erase the memory of last year’s stunning loss to Saint Peter’s as the Wildcats take on Providence in the first round of the East Region.

The Friars roll in as the 11-seed, having lost four of their last five games, but former Wildcat Bryce Hopkins hopes to lead his new team to a college basketball odds upset, and take advantage of a Kentucky team that has been woefully inconsistent, and far from a March Madness picks consensus.

Can Providence add insult to injury and condemn the Wildcats to yet another first-round exit, or will Kentucky finally get back to their winning postseason ways? Let’s discuss that and more in our Providence vs. Kentucky college basketball picks and predictions for Friday, March 17. 

Providence vs Kentucky best odds

Providence vs Kentucky picks and predictions

Coming into the season, many expected that Kentucky’s true outside threat would be CJ Fredrick. The former Iowa Hawkeye missed all of last season with an injury, and he was tagged to be the sharpshooter that would spread the floor and open things up for Tshiebwe, the reigning unanimous National Player of the Year. 

Instead, it was another midwest transfer who has become Kentucky’s go-to guy on the wing. Antonio Reeves, formerly of Illinois State, has been the one consistent player for an inconsistent offense over the past two months. Despite coming off the bench most of the season, Reeves is second on the team with 14.4 points per game. But since he got a bump in minutes against Alabama on January 7, it’s been all upward.

Reeves has hit double-digit points in 16 of his last 18 games, and after the injuries to Sahvir Wheeler and Cason Wallace a few weeks ago, he put the Wildcats on his back. Against Arkansas, he made 12 of 17 shots, including two of four from downtown, en route to a 37-point performance, which was his lowest number of attempts from outside in the last five games. 

Reeves is a volume shooter, having taken at least six attempts from beyond the arc in six of his last eight games. He’s connected on three or more in four of those games, and against teams who gave him open looks — such as Texas A&M, Auburn, and Georgia — he feasted, with 12 makes on 22 attempts.

He’s likely to get looks against Providence. The Friars may be worse than Kentucky at defending the pick and roll, and that’s saying something. But it’s led to repeatedly leaving good shooters open for great looks, and they’ve been getting punished for it recently.

In each of its last five games, Providence has allowed two opposing players to make at least a trio of 3-pt attempts. That’s 10 players in the last five games. Those five opponents made 54 of 117 attempts to hit a cool 46%, and if you omit Georgetown’s 11-of-28 effort it bumps up to 48.3% from behind the arc.

Given the attention that will be paid to Tshiebwe and Wallace, who is expected to play on Friday, it should lead to opportunities for Reeves. He’s stepped up this season in big games, and he’s going to do so again on Friday. Kentucky’s best bet is to get him open looks to stretch Providence’s defense, and that’s why your best bet is for Reeves to hit three or more from downtown.

My best bet: Antonio Reeves 3+ made threes (+116 at FanDuel)

Providence vs Kentucky spread analysis

Providence, despite losing four of its last five, has been a trendy upset pick in the media. The Covers Consensus isn’t as sure, with 51% of the picks being made on the Wildcats. That said, 57% of the money is on the Friars. 

Providence will need to work the glass as they have all season, as this is an intriguing matchup. The Friars rank Top-20 in offensive rebound rate, while the Wildcats rank 28th in defensive rebound rate. At the other end, the Wildcats are fourth in offensive rebound rate going up against a Providence team ranked 88th on the defensive boards.

Kentucky will likely be without Wheeler, although the point guard could be back if the Wildcats were to reach the second weekend of the tournament. All indications point to Wallace being near 100%, and the likely first-round draft pick will need to have a better game away from Rupp Arena than he typically does. 

Providence is healthy, but it’s reeling, with its only win over the past five games coming against lowly Georgetown. The Friars haven’t covered in their last four games against teams with winning records, but the Wildcats have covered in just three of their last 17 games at neutral sites. I expect Kentucky to win, but Providence to cover as the Wildcats are one of the worst teams in the country at putting away their opponents. 

Providence vs Kentucky Over/Under analysis

The Covers Consensus shows the same split with the Total as they do with the result. 52% of the picks are on the Under, with 67% of the money taking this to go past the 143.5 Total.

Those playing trends would be on the Over as well. Kentucky’s last four games following a loss have all hit on the Over, while the Over is 6-1 in Providence’s last seven games. It’s also 6-1 in the Friars’ last seven games against a team with a .600 record or better.

Providence’s loss to UConn ended a six-game run of Overs, and those games went way Over. Four of them covered the total by at least 13 points. 

As for the Wildcats, the Total hasn’t even been close either. Seven of their last nine games have seen the final score be at least 10 points away from the Total, with four of them being at least 13 points off.

That’s all to say that there’s really no way to properly predict the Total in this one. Both teams are capable of burying threes, and both are capable of going ice-cold. The only thing these two offenses tend to be consistent at is being inconsistent. The winning side of the Total will likely come down to which team controls the glass, and if they’re able to limit each other to one shot per trip. 

Providence vs Kentucky betting trend to know

Over is 6-1 in Friars' last seven overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Providence vs. Kentucky.

Providence vs Kentucky game info

Providence vs Kentucky key injuries

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