The North Carolina Tar Heels picked the perfect time to get hot, riding a three-game winning streak into the home stretch of ACC play. If the Tar Heels are going to keep the wins coming, they’ll have to topple a tall task in the Florida State Seminoles.
The Noles are one of the biggest teams in the land, and my North Carolina vs. Florida State predictions explain why that's bad news for junior Seth Trimble.
Find out more in my college basketball picks for February 24.
North Carolina vs Florida State prediction
My best bet
Seth Trimble Under 9.5 points (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
The catalyst behind North Carolina’s sudden surge is Davis’ move to a bigger lineup, leaning into forwards Jae’Lyn Withers and Ven-Allen Lubin in the past three outings.
That dependency on size has not only helped defensively but also picked up extra points, with UNC crashing the glass for a notable uptick in offensive rebounds and second-chance points.
Davis will likely stick to that bigger option against FSU, which ranks as the fourth tallest team in the country, headlined by 6-foot-10 forwards Malique Ewin and Taylor Bol Bowen. Florida State’s towering interior is 63rd in points scored in the paint and 67th in PITP allowed.
The Heels’ injection of size comes at a cost for Trimble, who has watched his minutes shrink during this streak.
After recording 30 or more minutes in six of seven games between January 18 and February 10 (averaging more than 11 points), Trimble played just 26 minutes as a starter vs. Clemson (four points), then came off the bench for 26 and 23 minutes against NC State (15 points) and Virginia (five points).
The 6-foot-3 guard isn’t a great outside shooter and relies on getting to the basket and drawing fouls for his production. He runs into an FSU defense among the best at protecting the rim but also a group that can slow down the Tar Heels' transition attack, which is another bright spot for Trimble.
His production also takes a notable hit on the road. Trimble scores almost 13 points a game on 48.6% success inside the Dean Dome but watches his output nosedive to 9.8 points on 33% shooting away from Chapel Hill.
Player projections for Trimble are tough to pick through, considering his sudden downtick in floor time. Some models have him pegged for just over 10 points when factoring that dip in minutes, while my forecast calls for 8.6 points, given FSU’s defensive strengths.
North Carolina vs Florida State same-game parlay (SGP)
Seth Trimble Under 9.5 points
Seth Trimble Under 4.5 rebounds
North Carolina team total Under 79.5
If Davis goes big again, Trimble's floor time will continue to shrink, and so will his scoring chances.
Trimble plays bigger than he is on the glass but faces a tall test against FSU’s frontcourt.
North Carolina has recently pumped up its points with second-chance points from offensive rebounds. Those won’t be as easy to come by tonight.
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North Carolina vs Florida State odds
North Carolina vs Florida State live odds
North Carolina vs Florida State opening odds
- Spread: North Carolina -2 | Florida State +2
- Moneyline: North Carolina -140 | Florida State +120
- Over/Under: Over 156 | Under 156
Odds courtesy of bet365
North Carolina vs Florida State betting trend to know
Florida State has covered the spread in 13 of its last 18 games at home (+7.50 Units/38% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Florida State.
How to watch North Carolina vs Florida State
| Location | Tucker Center, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date | Monday, 2-24-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
North Carolina vs Florida State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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