No. 12 vs. No. 5 matchups always get an extra bit of attention from fans looking for an upset during March Madness.
That showdown will be between the Richmond Spiders and Iowa Hawkeyes in the Midwest Region with the Hawkeyes looking to avoid becoming the latest top-ranked team to get bounced. The Spiders made a Cinderella run to the Sweet 16 in 2011 and will be hoping to recapture that magic as double-digit underdogs.
Here are our best free March Madness picks and predictions for Richmond vs. Iowa on Thursday, March 17, with tipoff at 3:10 p.m. ET.
Richmond vs Iowa odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line opened with the Hawkeyes installed as 9.5-point favorites with the Over/Under at 151. Early money has come in on Iowa and the Under, shifting the line to -10.5 with the total ticking down to 150.5 at the time of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Richmond vs Iowa predictions
Predictions made on 3/16/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Richmond vs Iowa game info
• Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:10 p.m. ET
• TV: truTV
Richmond vs Iowa betting preview
Injuries
Richmond: No injuries to report.
Iowa: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-0 in the Hawkeyes' last seven NCAA Tournament games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Richmond vs. Iowa.
Richmond vs Iowa picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Both of these schools are coming off a bit of a surprising run to win their respective conference tournaments. The Hawkeyes entered the Big Ten tourney as the No. 4 seed and knocked off the No. 3 Boilermakers in the finals by a score of 75-66.
The Spiders pulled off even more of a shocker, coming into the Atlantic 10 tournament as the No. 6 seed and winning four games in four days with the last three victories as underdogs against the three highest seeds in the conference.
Richmond's vastly improved defense was a big reason for that tournament title. The Spiders limited foes to 62.3 ppg in those four games and held Davidson's highly efficient offense to just 62 points on 37% shooting in the finals.
That was a massive difference from their performance during the regular season where they ranked 246th in the country in opponent FG% (44.5) and 276th in opponent 3PT% (35.1).
This contest will come down to which version of Richmond we get on Thursday afternoon because if it's the one we saw earlier in the season, they'll get torched by Iowa. The Hawkeyes rank second in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and boast a 46.4 FG% with a 36.8 3PT%. They're led by Wooden Award finalist Keegan Murray, who averages 23.6 points per game on 56/41/74 shooting splits.
When it comes right down to it, I'm inclined to believe in Richmond's late-season surge. It's also worth mentioning that they were very competitive earlier in the season in their only three contests against Power Six conference foes. They beat North Carolina State, pushed Missississippi State into overtime, and had a lead against Maryland until the last four minutes. We're leaning towards Richmond with the points.
Prediction: Richmond +10.5 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
We mentioned that Richmond's defense was subpar during the regular season but Iowa's hasn't been a whole lot better.
The Hawkeyes defended very well against Purdue in the Big Ten finals but had surrendered more than 70 points in five straight games prior to that contest, allowing 74.4 ppg during that span. That said, they were still able to outgun opponents thanks to a high-powered offense that ranks fourth in the country with 83.8 ppg on the season.
Both of these schools do a fantastic job of taking care of the ball, with Iowa committing the third-fewest turnovers per possession in the country and Richmond ranking 10th. We're expecting a relatively mistake-free day from these offenses and backing the Over.
Prediction: Over 150.5 (-110)
Best bet
This is a pretty big full-game spread with how solid Richmond has looked lately but if we can avoid a back-door cover we'd be more inclined to back the Hawkeyes. The Spiders have been winning games in recent weeks but they haven't been getting off to fast starts.
They've actually had a first-half lead in just one of their last seven games and trailed by at least 8 points in three of those contests (against Saint Louis, Rhode Island, and Dayton).
They sit just 172nd in the country in first-half scoring margin (plus-0.3 ppg) and now take on a Hawkeyes squad that ranks ninth with a first-half margin of plus-7.6 ppg. We're backing Iowa on the first-half spread.
Pick: Iowa First Half -6 (-110)
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