Rutgers vs Notre Dame West Region Picks: Fighting Irish Win Knock-Down, Drag-Out Battle

The No. 11 seed in the West Region of the NCAA Tournament is up for grabs today, with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights battling the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the First Four play-in game.

Neither team showed well in their respective conference postseasons, bowing out to eventual tournament winners. The similarities don’t end there, as the Scarlet Knights and Fighting Irish play more methodical paces on offense, which is why Wednesday’s total is on the lower end of the scale for March Madness odds.

Check out our free March Madness picks and predictions for Rutgers vs. Notre Dame on March 16.

Rutgers vs Notre Dame odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This spread has jumped the fence in its short time on the board, opening with Notre Dame as a 2-point underdog before moving through pick’em and settling in with the Irish as 1-point chalk. The total opened at 132 points and has jumped up to 132.5 at some shops.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Rutgers vs Notre Dame predictions

• Prediction: Notre Dame -1 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 132.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Rutgers TT Under 66 (-105)

Predictions made on 3/14/2022 at 12:36 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Rutgers vs Notre Dame game info

• Location: UD Arena, Dayton, OH
• Date: Wednesday, March 16, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:10 p.m. ET
• TV: truTV

Rutgers vs Notre Dame betting preview

Injuries

Rutgers: None.
Notre Dame: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Fighting Irish are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Rutgers vs. Notre Dame.

Rutgers vs Notre Dame picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Rutgers earned itself the fourth spot in the Big Ten and a ticket to the Big Dance by slowing down some sound offensive opposition this season, putting the breaks on teams like Iowa, Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio State.

The Fighting Irish rank among those foes, sitting 29th in offensive efficiency at KenPom.com. Despite running one of the slower tempos in the ACC, Notre Dame is able to pump out the points at a very effective rate thanks in large part to its prowess from beyond the arc.

The Irish shot almost 38% from distance and racked up an average of more than nine triples per contest on the year. They knocked down only seven against Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament but poured on a total of 64 made 3-pointers in the final five games of the regular season.

The Scarlet Knights do a great job protecting the interior and pack the paint to give up only 46.5% shooting on 2-point field goal attempts. But against teams that can hit from outside and stretch the floor, Rutgers has found itself in trouble. 

It gives up a 34% success rate from beyond the arc and watches foes collect almost 35% of their total point production from 3-point range. The Irish thrive from long range and pick up 37.8% of their production from distance — 37th most in the country.

Notre Dame also plays controlled basketball, limiting turnovers (only 10.3 per game) while also making the most of any freebies at the foul line (76% FT): two aspects that hold a lot of weight in the madness of March.

Prediction: Notre Dame -1 (-110)

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Over/Under analysis

These programs rank among the bottom of the nation in terms of tempo, with Rutgers at 289th and Notre Dame at 250th. That’s helped form one of the lower Over/Under totals of the opening NCAA Tournament schedule.

The Fighting Irish aren’t the stoutest defense in the ACC, but they do a good job jumping passing lanes and disrupting opponents’ set plays. Notre Dame limits foes to only 11.3 assists per game and an assist per field goal made rate of just 0.441 — 39th lowest in the country.

Rutgers isn’t a very deep team but has some energetic weapons on offense, like 6-foot-6 senior Ron Harper Jr. and guard Geo Baker. The Scarlet Knights are more comfortable in a halfcourt set, chewing up lots of shot clock and relying on ball movement for scoring chances. They average 15 assists per outing and own an assist per field goal made ratio of 0.587 — 32nd in the land.

If the Irish can plug those passing lanes and force Rutgers into one-on-one situations with the shot clock ticking, the Scarlet Knights are going to toss up their share of bad shots. They already have a woeful 49.5% effective field goal rate which sits 200th in college hoops. 

Prediction: Under 132.5 (-110)

Best bet

Rutgers is going to struggle to find any extra points outside its halfcourt sets versus Notre Dame. 

The Irish take care of the ball and don’t allow foes to capitalize on points off turnovers and they do a solid job cleaning the glass on the defensive end, owning a defensive rebound rate of 77.9% (41st in the country) and giving up just 7.2 offensive rebounds per game.

The Scarlet Knights put up 74 points in the tournament loss to Iowa — their biggest scoring day in more than a month — but a hot start that saw Rutgers score 15 of the game's first 20 points was the main catalyst for that output. 

Rutgers backed into the postseason with offensive efforts of 59, 66, 61, and 62 points in the final four regular-season contests, and given the bad matchup against an Irish defense that doesn’t allow for easy assists, it isn’t getting past its team total of 66 points on Wednesday.

Pick: Rutgers Team Total Under 66 (-105) 

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