The No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats (26-7) have serious championship aspirations but their results against elevated competition have been worrisome, having lost three of their last five games against teams in the field for March Madness. The Saint Peter's Peacocks (19-11) punched their ticket by winning the MAAC tournament, and are looking to tap in the madness with their surprisingly stout defense.
Can Saint Peter's play within the large number in the March Madness odds or will Kentucky put the concerns regarding its ceiling to rest? Continue reading for free March Madness picks and predictions for the No. 2 Kentucky vs No. 15 Saint Peter's matchup on Thursday, March 17th.
Saint Peter's vs Kentucky odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Kentucky opened as 17.5 point favorites and currently stand at -18. The total opened at 133.5 and has since moved to 132.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Saint Peter's vs Kentucky predictions
- Prediction: Saint Peter's +18 (-105)
- Prediction: Under 133.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Saint Peter's +18 (-105)
Predictions made on 3/16/2022 at 7:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Saint Peter's vs Kentucky game info
• Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Saint Peter's vs Kentucky betting preview
Injuries
Saint Peter's: None.
Kentucky: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Since 2006, two seeds are 1-6 against the spread against 15 seeds when the 15 seed has a KenPom defensive rating that ranks 75th or better. Saint Peter's ranks 34th in the nation. Find more NCAA betting trends for Saint Peter's vs. Kentucky.
Saint Peter's vs Kentucky picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Big Dance is as good of a time as any for the stars to shine their brightest, and Kentucky's leading man Oscar Tshiebwe is as good of a candidate as anyone to do so. Tshiebwe is averaging a double-double with 17.0 PPG and 15.2 rebounds, and the latter is a mark that deserves more recognition than it is currently getting.
Not only does it lead the nation, but it leads the next highest mark by an entire 1.5 rebounds. That may not sound like much, so here's a better way to contextualize Tshiebwe's dominance: his 15.2 boards per game are the highest mark since 1979 and it is just the second time a player has managed to average 15+ rebounds since then.
But rebounding is obviously not all that he does. Tshiebwe also scores at the rim at a 77.6% mark, and he complements that with a 38.3% clip on two-point jumpers as well. He is surrounded by talented players as well such as TyTy Washington (12.8 PPG, 4.0 APG), who is also a 70% finisher at the rim and doubles as one of the two pilots of the offense alongside Sahvir Wheeler (10.0 PPG, 6.9 APG).
Sharpshooter Kellan Grady (11.5 PPG) manages a 42.4% mark from deep on high volume (6.2 attempts per game) and serves as Kentucky's primary perimeter presence by a large margin. It's no surprise then that the Wildcats led the SEC in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and (of course), rebounds surrendered. But despite well-rounded roster construction and favorable metrics, Kentucky has largely struggled to separate itself from the rest of the elite teams in the nation.
John Calipari's squad managed just a 7-7 record against teams that made the tournament, which includes a 3-6 record against ranked opponents this year. Those struggles may resurface against a Saint Peter's team that may be better than suspected. The Peacocks are quietly a really good defensive team, at least by 15 seed standards.
Saint Peter's ranks 34th overall in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency and punched its ticket by winning the MAAC tournament by holding its opponents to an average of 56.3 points. That stretch actually extends out even further, having allowed just 51.7 points per game during its current seven-game winning streak.
Fifteen seeds that profile similarly to Saint Peter's have historically fared well in the first round when it comes to the spread. In the seven instances since 2006 when a 15 seed possessed a KenPom defensive efficiency ranking of 75th or better, they have gone 6-1 against the spread. That staggering of a record may lead one to think that Kentucky should be on upset alert, but coincidentally those two seeds have still managed to go 6-1 straight up in those games.
Prediction: Saint Peter's +18 (-105)
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Over/Under analysis
While Saint Peter's may be able to soften the blow of Kentucky's offense and keep it within the large number, its lack of offensive firepower should be noted. Saint Peter's ranks 259th in KenPom offensive efficiency and one look through its stat sheet reveals why.
The Peacocks have just two double-digit scorers on their team, with neither averaging more than 11 points. Junior guard Daryl Banks III manages to be the team's scoring leader with just 11.0 points per game and does it on just 38.5% shooting from the field. Banks' biggest threat as a scorer is from the perimeter, where he shoots 36.4% on moderate volume (4.3 attempts per game). Senior guard KC Ndefo is more efficient on less overall volume, while also adding to his scoring (10.6 PPG) by being second on the team in rebounding (6.2 RPG).
Even if you expect Kentucky to cover the large number, you should still take the Under. In No. 2 vs No. 15 games since 2006, games in which the two-seed covered have gone 20-8 to the Under. If you believe Saint Peter's can keep Kentucky to 80 points or fewer, the Under has gone 29-13 in such situations in these matchups and improves to 24-3 to the Under when the No. 2 seed is kept 75 points or less.
Prediction: Under 133.5 (-110)
Best bet
The Wildcats shouldn't have too hard of a time advancing to the Round of 32, but that is possibly an edge within itself. Teams do not have an incentive to continue building on blowouts as they do in the regular season when they are trying to improve their NET ratings and build tournament resumes. With the quick turnaround between rounds, there is even less motivation to press on any large margins.
Plus, as mentioned previously Saint Peter's isn't exactly a team that has let in a lot of points. And to that point, Saint Peter's has been one of the best teams against the spread this year largely due to their ability to clamp down on teams. The Peacocks are 20-9 ATS (69.0%) this season, the fourth-best mark in all of college basketball.
Expect Kentucky to advance, but expect Saint Peter's to show its feathers.
Pick: Saint Peter's +18 (-105)
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