We've delivered several March Madness picks, but now the 2023 NCAA Tournament comes to a close tonight with the San Diego Aztecs squaring off against the UConn Huskies for the National Title.
The Huskies will be trying to win their fifth national championship within the last 25 years while the Aztecs hadn't advanced past the Sweet 16 until this season.
UConn has breezed through the tourney so far and March Madness odds expect that to continue with college basketball betting lines opening with the Huskies as 7.5-point favorites. Here are my best free San Diego State vs. UConn college basketball picks for April 3.
San Diego State vs UConn best odds
San Diego State vs UConn picks and predictions
The UConn Huskies have steamrolled through the tournament thanks to how efficient they are on both ends of the floor.
That balance has helped them exploit the flaws of the one-dimensional opponents they've faced during March Madness. Meanwhile, The San Diego State Aztecs have struggled on offense and sit outside the Top 200 in effective field goal percentage (49.6%).
Considering the Huskies held the No. 1 (Gonzaga) and No. 6 (Miami) rated offenses in the country below 60 points in back-to-back contests, San Diego State is going to struggle to get buckets.
On the other end of the floor, while the Aztecs have a stingy defense, they have a few holes that the Huskies should be able to take advantage of. Although SDSU defends very well on the perimeter and in the paint, it ranks 357th in defending midrange shots per ShotQualityBets.
The Huskies rank 10th in midrange efficiency, 63rd when running the pick and roll, and 60th on off-ball screens. Meanhwile, the Aztecs are 318th in defending the pick-and-roll while ranking 223rd against off-ball screens.
UConn should be able to score enough to build a decent-sized lead and SDSU won't have the firepower to mount another comeback.
My best bet: UConn -7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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San Diego State vs UConn spread analysis
The Huskies have gone 10-1 straight up and against the spread in their last 11 games and have an average scoring margin of +20.6 points per game during the NCAA Tournament.
Their 72-59 victory against Miami in the Final Four was actually their closest game of the tourney, and the final score doesn't reflect how dominant they looked. They held one of the most efficient offenses in the country to just 32.2% shooting while knocking down 49.1% of their own shots.
It's been a tougher road to the championship game for the Aztecs, who pulled off come-from-behind victories by just a single point in each of their last two games. In the Final Four against Florida Atlantic, they rallied from a 14-point deficit to win on a buzzer-beater from guard Lamont Butler.
San Diego State is third in the country in 3-point defense (28.1%) but the Owls knocked down 5 of 11 shots from deep in the first half and scored 40 points. The Aztecs vaunted defense finally showed up in the second half, holding FAU to just nine points in a 10-minute stretch which fueled their comeback.
That SDSU defense ranks fourth in the country in adjusted efficiency per KenPom, but the Aztecs have been far less impressive on the other end of the floor ranking 68th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Matt Bradley (12.7 ppg) is the only SDSU player averaging double digits in points, and while he struggled against Alabama and Creighton, he broke out of his slump with 21 points against FAU.
UConn is Top 10 in both adjusted offensive efficiency (third) and adjusted defensive efficiency (eighth). Its inside/outside combination of Adama Sanogo (17.2 points and 7.6 rebounds per game) and Jordan Hawkins (16.2 ppg on 41/39/88 shooting) is extremely tough to defend while Tristen Newton and Andre Jackson have done an excellent job of facilitating.
San Diego State vs UConn Over/Under analysis
While the Huskies were fortunate to face off against some weaker defensive teams in the last two rounds, they played a pair of Top-20 defenses in the Sweet 16 and Round of 32.
They were able to score 88 points against an up-tempo Arkansas squad but had a much lower-scoring 70-55 victory against the extremely slow-paced Saint Mary's Gaels.
This total will likely end up being closer to that contest against the Gaels since the Aztecs also play at a slower pace (270th in the country in adjusted tempo) and defend at a high level.
The Aztecs were able to slow down some efficient offenses in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, holding Alabama to almost 20 points below its season average and allowing Creighton to score just 56.
A big reason for their success in those games was their ability to lock down on the perimeter, holding the Crimson Tide and Bluejays to a combined 5-for-44 from beyond the arc. Center Nathan Mensah is also a difference-maker when it comes to protecting the rim thanks to his 7-foot-4 wingspan.
The Huskies have an intimidating rim protector of their own in Donovan Klingan. The freshman doesn't start but is a key reserve that averages 5.7 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in just 13.1 minutes per game.
San Diego State vs UConn betting trend to know
The Under is 7-2 in UConn's last nine games while going 17-5 in San Diego State's previous 22 contests. Find more college basketball betting trends for San Diego State vs. UConn.
San Diego State vs UConn game info
| Location: | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Monday, April 3, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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