The Arizona Wildcats steamrolled the Wright State Raiders in their opening game of March Madness, and they’ll now look to cruise to a win over the TCU Horned Frogs on Sunday.
Arizona has been playing without starting point guard Kerr Kriisa, but it seems as though there’s a chance he’ll be back out there in this one.
Will the Horned Frogs be able to muster up enough offense to hang around against the Wildcats? Continue reading our free March madness picks and predictions for TCU vs. Arizona on March 20.
TCU vs Arizona odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Since opening as a 9.5-point favorite over TCU, the Wildcats have received most of the early action and the line hasn’t moved at all. The total, which opened at 143.5, is up to 144 in some places now.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
TCU vs Arizona predictions
Predictions made on 3/19/2022 at 9:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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TCU vs Arizona game info
• Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
• Date: Sunday, March 20, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
TCU vs Arizona betting preview
Injuries
TCU: Maxwell Evans G (Out).
Arizona: Kerr Kriisa G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
TCU is 10-4 against the spread in its last 14 games as a neutral-court underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for TCU vs. Arizona.
TCU vs Arizona picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The status of Kriisa in this game will be pretty interesting to watch, but the Wildcats have been very good without him. Dalen Terry, who has been the glue of Arizona this season, has looked extremely comfortable playing as the team’s lead guard.
If Kriisa ends up missing this one, the Wildcats know they’ll be alright. However, against a Horned Frogs team that is 15th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (all efficiency stats from KenPom), it’s going to be hard for Arizona to cover without the guy that ran the show all season.
There’s no denying that the winner of this game is likely to be Arizona, which starts Terry and two first-round NBA prospects in Bennedict Mathurin and Christian Koloko. But TCU is a feisty, well-coached group that has pulled off some massive upsets this season. The Horned Frogs, led by Mike Miles and his 15.2 points per game, are going to go down swinging here.
Their blowout victory over the Seton Hall Pirates shows that they’re ready to go in this one. Miles had 21 points in that win over the Pirates on Friday, and he’s a big shot taker and a big shot maker. Miles is a very good shooter off the dribble, which is exactly the type of player that is dangerous in March. Look for him to make some tough shots in this game, and don’t be surprised if he ultimately swings this one for bettors.
Also, while the Wildcats have a ton of size inside, where Koloko, Azuolas Tubelis, and Oumar Ballo are all massive bodies, the Horned Frogs will live with Arizona taking a lot of shots around the basket. It’s the three-point line that is where TCU doesn’t want to be killed, and the Horned Frogs were tied for 54th in the nation in opponent’s three-point percentage this season.
As long as they’re playing hard and contesting shots, they shouldn’t get blown out here.
Prediction: TCU +9.5 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
Since Jamie Dixon became the head coach at TCU, the Over is 35-21 in games with a total between 140 and 149.5. The average total points scored in those games is 147.8 points per game, which shows you that the Horned Frogs can get themselves involved in some high-scoring games — even if this is a program that prides itself on defense.
Additionally, the Over is 12-5 when Arizona plays in games with a total between 140 and 149.5, so the same situation makes a high-scoring affair likely for the Wildcats. Before Arizona’s meeting with Wright State went Under the total by only a half of a point last game, the Over had hit in each of the Wildcats’ last six contests.
This group is getting itself into shootouts and coming out on top, so the team doesn’t have a need to slow things down. Arizona is seventh in the nation in adjusted tempo this year, and the better team is usually the one that gets to dictate the pace of the game.
Prediction: Over 143.5 (-110)
Best bet
TCU is 4-1 against the spread in its last five neutral-court games, and Dixon’s group is also 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games against teams with winning percentages above 60.0%.
The Horned Frogs are also 12-4 ATS when facing teams that average at least 16.0 assists per game after 15 games under Dixon. TCU lost those games by an average of only 1.0 points per game, and the average total points scored in those contests was 150.8 points per game.
The Horned Frogs might be a defensive-minded basketball team, but this rotation is full of players that rise to the occasion in big spots. That’s how this team was able to earn home wins over the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Kansas Jayhawks this season. This one might not end with TCU on top, but it’s just hard to see the Horned Frogs losing this game by double digits.
There’s a lot of fight in this group, and they should be able to keep things somewhat close.
Pick: TCU +9.5 (-110)
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