In a meeting between two teams that really take the defensive end seriously, the Seton Hall Pirates face the TCU Horned Frogs in March Madness. The winner of this one will be a tough out for anybody, so this is going to be a game that the teams in the South region will have their eyes on.
Will the Jamie Dixon’s Horned Frogs come away with a big win over the Pirates here? You’ll have to read our TCU vs. Seton Hall March Madness picks and predictions to find out.
TCU vs Seton Hall odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
After opening as a 1-point favorite, the Pirates are now either favored by just 0.5 or they’re being offered as a pick’em play. The total, which opened at 130.5, is now down all the way to 128.5 on some books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
TCU vs Seton Hall predictions
Predictions made on 3/17/2022 at 11:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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TCU vs Seton Hall game info
• Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
• Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:57 p.m. ET
• TV: truTV
TCU vs Seton Hall betting preview
Injuries
TCU: Shahada Wells G (Out), Maxwell Evans G (Out).
Seton Hall: Bryce Aiken G (Out), Jahari Long G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 10-4 in the last 14 neutral-court games TCU has played. Find more NCAA betting trends for TCU vs. Seton Hall.
TCU vs Seton Hall picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Seton Hall undoubtedly misses the offensive ability of Bryce Aiken, who averaged 14.5 points per game this season. Without him, the Pirates are relying a little too heavily on Jared Rhoden to carry the offense. Outside of those two, nobody else in the Seton Hall lineup averages more than 10.0 points per game. Of course, the Pirates are deep with players that are capable of contributing, but depth isn’t quite as important as talent up top in the NCAA Tournament. And in Mike Miles, who averages 15.0 points and 3.9 assists per game, the Horned Frogs have the best shot-maker on the floor in this one.
Miles isn’t the most efficient player in the world, but he’s capable of getting hot in a hurry. He’s going to take a lot of pull-up jumpers in this game, and he has the type of confidence that usually pays off in a tournament setting. Meanwhile, TCU also has guys like Damion Baugh, Emanuel Miller, and Chuck O’Bannon Jr., who make up a supporting cast that is a lot better than the one Rhoden will be playing with. The Horned Frogs might not have a ton of success scoring the basketball against this Pirates defense, but it should do just enough to allow the defense to win the game.
TCU is 24th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com) this season, which is bad news for a Seton Hall team that is just 81st in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Horned Frogs aren’t going to let the Pirates get a lot of uncontested shots off, and they’re going to be active in the passing lanes. That should allow this squad to grind out an ugly victory.
Prediction: TCU +0.5 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
While TCU is 24th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, Seton Hall is right there at 26th in the country. These are two teams that really make you work hard for every shot attempt, and the added adrenaline of playing in the Big Dance is only going to add to that. These teams also happen to take their time on the offensive end. The Horned Frogs are just 24th in the nation in adjusted tempo this season, and the Pirates are a little faster at 161st. However, without Aiken in the lineup to add some offensive firepower, Seton Hall isn’t really in a position to score enough point to hurt Under bettors here.
The Under has hit in each of the last five games that TCU has played, and the team failed to score in the 70s in four of those five. Meanwhile, the Under is 7-1 in the last eight games that Seton Hall has played, with the Pirates scoring less than 70 points in six of those games. These are just two teams that compete with sheer will on defense.
Prediction: Under 128.5 (-110)
Best bet
This game might not ultimately be fun to watch until the final few minutes, but you won’t be that upset if you’re in a good position to win late. This has the chance to be the ugliest game of the first two days, and you just aren’t going to want to find yourself hoping for points in the second half of this contest.
The Under is 10-4 in the last 14 games that TCU has played on a neutral floor, and it’s also 4-0 in the last four games that the team has played against opponents with a winning percentage of 60.0% or higher. As for Seton Hall, the Under is 5-1 in the last six neutral-court games that the Pirates have played. And much like the Horned Frogs, it’s 7-3 in the last 10 games that Seton Hall has played against opponents with winning percentages over 60.0%.
Good competition only means tougher defense for both of these programs, which means they’ll both be bringing their hard hats to this game. With this being such a late tip, it might be best to bet this one and then get to bed.
Pick: Under 128.5 (-110)
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