The young offensive attack of the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils squares off against the veteran-led defense of the No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament tonight.
This difference in philosophies and experience has oddsmakers on the fence, giving a slight edge to TTU as a 1-point favorite in this West Regional semifinal. The Red Raiders are used to facing high-powered attacks, putting the clamps on the likes of Kansas and Baylor this year en route to ranking No. 1 in the all-powerful adjusted defensive efficiency metric.
Here are our free March Madness picks and predictions for Texas Tech vs. Duke on March 24.
Texas Tech vs Duke odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Some books opened Texas Tech as high as -1.5 but that has slimmed to -1 at most shops and could jump the fence with Duke +1 juiced as high as -117 at some books. The total opened as low as 135.5 and has jumped to as high as 138 points with play on the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Texas Tech vs Duke predictions
Predictions made on 3/22/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Texas Tech vs Duke game info
• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Thursday, March 22, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:39 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Texas Tech vs Duke betting preview
Injuries
Texas Tech: None.
Duke: A.J. Griffin G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-1 in Blue Devils’ last eight overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Duke.
Texas Tech vs Duke picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Texas Tech has been tested against some very good offenses this season, taking on and breaking down the likes of Kansas, Baylor, Texas, and Oklahoma – all of which rank Top 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Red Raiders went 7-3 SU and ATS against those high-scoring foes.
Duke, on the other hand, isn't seen a defense like TTU all year. To say the ACC was a soft conference for defense is no understatement, failing to boast a Top 40 defense in adjusted efficiency. When the Blue Devils did run into some stingy opponents, the results were mixed.
Looking at the past month and a half, Duke was 1-3 SU versus North Carolina, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and Virginia – four of the Top 5 defenses in the ACC (Duke being the other) – and failed to cover as a favorite in each of those outings.
The Blue Devils are a promising team with plenty of budding superstars - ranked No. 4 in offensive efficiency – but don’t always look like it. Careless turnovers and extended scoring droughts continue to plague this team, most notably in those losses to UNC and Virginia Tech.
Duke was able to overcome those same blips versus MSU, but Texas Tech is far less forgiving and can easily stretch those scoring droughts into full-blown dust bowls.
The Blue Devils do have a notable size advantage under the basket, with 7-footer Mark Williams and fellow big Paolo Banchero (6-foot-10), but TTU is such an active team in help defense that those big men won’t see many touches without a second defender coming.
As well, the Red Raiders senior frontcourt of Bryson Williams and Kevin Obanor (both 6-foot-8) is “man strong” and won’t budge an inch on the blocks - nor will they give many extra possessions to the Blue Devils, ranked 15th nationally in rebound rate (54.6%).
Texas Tech is allowing foes just 14 total offensive boards in the tournament so far and Duke needed 10 offensive rebounds and 14 second-chance points to sneak past the Spartans, who actually won the rebounding war Sunday.
The Coach K narrative and the public popularity of Duke could push this spread over the fence by tipoff on Thursday, so you could wait and see if you get Texas Tech at pick’em or even plus-points.
As for now, we agree with the opening line and like the Red Raiders to write the final chapter in the Book of Krzyzewski.
Prediction: Texas Tech -1 (-103)
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Over/Under analysis
This Over/Under total is a tricky one, as a bet on TTU would anchor itself to a low-scoring finish. However, the Blue Devils' defense hasn’t been great this month and the Red Raiders’ best chance of scoring is to push the ball in transition – especially when they create turnovers.
Going back to that devastating loss to North Carolina in Coach K’s final game inside Cameron Indoor, Duke is allowing five of its last six opponents to score over their season average in points (save for CSU Fullerton in the Round of 64).
That span includes making two ho-hum offensive programs (Michigan State and Virginia Tech) look far better than they truly are. Over the past three games (going back to the loss to VT in the ACC tournament), the Blue Devils’ defensive efficiency has ballooned from a season average of 0.962 (88th) to 1.097.
Texas Tech is no offensive juggernaut – despite what that opened versus Montana State would indicate – but knows what to do with the basketball when foes make mistakes. The Red Raiders can turn and burn in transition and will pick up the pace against a big Duke lineup in order to put those lumbering Blue Devils on their heels and beat them back to the paint.
Texas Tech scored 11 points off turnovers versus Notre Dame, nine on fastbreaks, and attacked the rim for 24 points in the paint. They had 23 points off turnovers in the opener with Montana State, fueling 13 fastbreak points and finishing with 38 points in the paint.
Should TTU beat the Blue Devils, it won’t just be on easy buckets in transition. Texas Tech will need to hit some shots and keep pace against a deep Duke attack.
That also means a better effort from beyond the arc, after hitting only 4 of 15 from deep against Notre Dame. The Red Raiders are the most lethal long-range team but showed it can shoot with a 12-for-20 performance from the perimeter in the Round of 64.
Prediction: Over 137 (-110)
Best bet
As mentioned, this spread may swing toward Duke before game time on Thursday night. So, if you like Texas Tech, you may want to wait it out – or you can bet TTU moneyline now and hit it again if it goes to plus-money closer to tip.
This Sweet 16 game is why we love March Madness, with great contrast in style and experience. But when it comes down to it, I’m leaning with the more battled tested Red Raiders.
Duke had defacto home court in Greenville, SC in the opening two games but now must cross the country to play in San Francisco. While the Cameron Crazies do travel well, so does defense. And that means TTU’s smothering man-to-man will be in attendance at the Chase Center.
The Red Raiders have played in 11 games with ranked opponents and won six of those matchups, so they won’t be out of Duke’s depth. In fact, it’s the other way around when you measure the quality of defenses the Dukies have faced.
I actually had Duke advancing in my bracket (which isn't worth the paper it's printed on at this point), but those bad habits that showed up in losses to UNC and Virginia Tech are still there for Coach K's kids.
Pick: Texas Tech ML -115
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