The UAB Blazers are a team that can be very exciting to watch but the same can’t be said for their opponents in this one, the Houston Cougars. One of these teams is going to be forced to play a different style than it’s used to, which should make for an interesting March Madness game.
Do the Blazers have what it takes to keep this game close against the Cougars? Keep reading our UAB vs. Houston March Madness picks and predictions to find out.
UAB vs Houston odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Cougars were laying 8.5 points when this line opened and they’re mostly still favored by that same amount — with the exception of one book that has them as 8-point favorites. Meanwhile, the total opened at 137 and is now down as low as 136.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
UAB vs Houston predictions
Predictions made on 3/17/2022 at 9:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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UAB vs Houston game info
• Location: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:20 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
UAB vs Houston betting preview
Injuries
UAB: Josh LeBlanc Sr. F (Questionable).
Houston: Ramon Walker Jr. G (Probable), Fabian White Jr. F (Probable), Marcus Sasser G (Out), Tramon Mark G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Houston is 23-9 against the spread in its last 32 neutral-court games. Find more NCAA betting trends for UAB vs. Houston.
UAB vs Houston picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Houston is one of the most balanced teams in all of college basketball, as the Cougars are 10th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com) and 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Even with Marcus Sasser, arguably the team’s best all-around player, out for the year, this Houston squad is still dangerous on both ends of the floor. The group just plays extremely hard, and it rarely makes boneheaded plays. That’s going to go a long way until the Cougars play a team that is significantly more talented than they are, but that’s far from the case against UAB.
UAB was very good on offense during the season, but that’s actually not what you want your strength to be against this stingy Houston defense. Jordan “Jelly” Walker is definitely a fan favorite amongst college basketball fans, as he averaged 20.4 points and 4.8 assists per game and plays an exciting style of basketball. He is, however, facing a team that defends the 3-point line extremely well. The Cougars only allow opponents to shoot 29.0% from deep, which is the 11th-best mark in the nation. With the way Houston contests shots and runs shooters off the line, this has the potential to be an ugly outing for the UAB offense.
The Blazers are also mediocre on the defensive end, which is why this could turn into a lopsided affair. UAB is just 87th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this year, and that’s not a great sign heading into a meeting with a Houston team that can be surgical on that end. Look for Fabian White to set the tone for the Cougars in this one. He’s a really tough forward, capable of scoring in a number of different ways. White had 20 in the final of the conference tournament and the Blazers aren’t going to have a match for him. Josh Carlton also continues to get better and better as the season goes on, and he should be a presence in the paint here.
The Cougars also have a backcourt that is capable of getting hot, as Kyler Edwards, Taze Moore and Jamal Shead are all good guards. They might not have the same ability to take over as Sasser, but they’re a good collective and should play well here.
Prediction: Houston -8 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
UAB was good on the offensive end throughout the course of the year, and a lot of that had to do with the way the team plays. The Blazers play at a very fast pace and like to get threes up, but they’re not really going to be able to do that against the Cougars. Houston was 333rd in the nation in adjusted tempo this year, and the Cougars are going to be the ones that can dictate the pace in this type of game. They’re going to walk it up the floor and use the shot clock to make sure they get the exact types of looks they want, and they’re going to smother the Blazers guards on the other end. Don’t expect Houston to give up many threes, and you also shouldn’t bank on many transition opportunities for UAB.
This season, the Under is 11-4 when Houston is playing against teams with winning percentages of 60.0% to 80.0%. The average total points scored in those contests is 130.8 points per game. That just goes to show you that the Cougars win out in the stylistic battle when facing good competition. The Under is also 6-1 in the last seven games that Houston has played, so these games are still on the low-scoring side in tournament play.
The Under is also 7-3 in the last 10 NCAA Tournament games that Houston has played.
Prediction: Under 136.5 (-110)
Best bet
While UAB is 1-4 against the spread in the last five NCAA Tournament games that the program has played, Houston is a ridiculous 23-9 ATS in the team’s last 32 neutral-court games. The Cougars are also 19-7 ATS in the last 26 games in which they’ve been favored on a neutral floor, and they’re 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as favorites, in general. On top of that, Houston is 10-3 ATS when facing teams that shoot at least 21.0 threes per game this season. That’s another example of the way the Cougars are able to make opponents uncomfortable.
UAB’s run to win the Conference USA Tournament was fun to watch, and there’s no denying the star power of Walker. But while Houston might be a boring team, the Cougars are just too good on both ends of the floor to allow the Blazers to hang around here.
Pick: Houston -8 (-110)
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