No. 4 versus No. 13 matchups aren’t the one-sided spreads they used to be. The West Region is a perfect example of that parity, with the March Madness odds having 13th seed Vermont Catamounts just 5-point underdogs facing the fourth seed Arkansas Razorbacks in the Round of 64 on Thursday.
Arkansas is a high-powered offense that thrives on transition and attacking the rim. Vermont is the title holder out of the America East, hanging its hat on defense and tough interior play. It has lost only five games all year, and it is no stranger to the Big Dance or power conference competition.
Here are our free March Madness picks and predictions for Vermont vs. Arkansas on March 17.
Vermont vs Arkansas odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Arkansas opened as big as a 6-point favorite for this matchup and some books have been bet down to -4.5 with early play on Vermont. The total opened at 140 points and has slimmed to as low as 139.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Vermont vs Arkansas predictions
Predictions made on 3/15/2022 at 12:17 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Vermont vs Arkansas game info
• Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:20 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Vermont vs Arkansas betting preview
Injuries
Vermont: No injuries to report.
Arkansas: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Catamounts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Vermont vs. Arkansas.
Vermont vs Arkansas picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Two of the Catamounts’ five losses came against the likes of Maryland and Providence, and this program put a scare in Florida State in the opening round of the tournament in 2019. Any intimidation factor that may befall other mid-major teams isn’t going to impact coach John Becker’s kids.
Not only is Vermont’s record impressive but just how dominant it has been should scare Razorbacks fans. It's lost only one game since December 7 and since that 10-point loss, has only played in three games decided by single digits.
This team owns an average margin of victory of +14.1 (third highest in the country), which has translated into a 15-7 against the spread mark in its past 22 games.
So how does it match up with the Hogs? Perhaps we should be asking how Arkansas matches up with Vermont.
The Catamounts are one of the best teams at controlling tempo in the country, putting the breaks on transition, and forcing foes into the halfcourt.
They are very disruptive, allowing less than 10 assists per game, and drag opponents deep into the shot clock – ranked 326th in terms of defensive possession length at KenPom.com.
If Arkansas can’t get to the rim for high-percentage points or draw whistles and score from the line – something they rely on heavily (22.5% of points from the charity stripe) – this offense could find itself lost with the shot clock dwindling. That means settling for bad and long-range shots, and the Hogs aren’t great in isolation attempts or beyond the arc, shooting less than 31% from distance.
Prediction: Vermont +5 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
The Catamounts can’t afford for Arkansas to dictate the tempo of this game, so betting on them to cover is basically a bet on the Under as well.
Vermont ranks 288th in tempo and is very efficient on offense, boasting an effective field goal rate of 57.3% - third highest in the country.
Those extended possessions finishing in high-percentage interior points force the Razorbacks to inbound on the bulk of possession and automatically slows down that Arkansas attack, allowing Vermont time to get set on defense.
But for as much as we celebrate the Catamounts’ ability to defend, the Hogs are no turnstile defense either.
They are No. 16 in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom.com and also protect the paint, checking rivals to 46.4% shooting on 2-point field goals and utilizing its length and quickness to send back 4.2 shots blocked per contest.
Both sides are very good at collecting rebounds on the defensive end as well – Vermont tops the land in defensive rebound rate – so don’t expect many extra possessions or putbacks off offensive boards.
Prediction: Under 139.5 (-110)
Best bet
Vermont will be a popular upset pick among the bracket crowd in the know.
This team matches up very well against the Razorbacks on the defensive end and should slow down their' high-octane offensive and stifle Arkansas’ cut-heavy approach in the halfcourt, allowing an assist per field goal made rate of 0.435 – 29th lowest in the nation.
Vermont also holds an edge from outside against the Hogs, with an ability to take and make big 3-pointers. On the season, the Catamounts are averaging almost 37% success from downtown and pick up nearly nine triples per outing. That production jumped to 10 3-pointers on 43% shooting during the AEC tournament.
You can grab as many points as you can with the 13th seed or roll the dice on a very live underdog in the Round of 64 to win outright.
Pick: Vermont moneyline +180
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