Virginia Tech vs Florida South Region Picks: Gators High Risk, High Reward

The South Region has an interesting college basketball betting matchup in the 7 vs. 10 spot, as two Power Conference programs clash with Florida and Virginia Tech.

We'll break down both teams with our March Madness picks in trying to determine whether the high-risk/high-reward Gators have the advantage over a Hokies squad that was just OK in a very subpar ACC this season.

See how we think it all plays out below with our free Virginia Tech vs. Florida picks and predictions for March 19, with tip-off set for 12:15 p.m. ET.

Virginia Tech vs Florida odds

Sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

FanDuel went up Sunday night with Florida a 1-point favorite, moved to pick 'em a couple of times early in the week and on game day went to Virginia Tech -1 this morning. Ticket count is almost dead even, but the Hokies are netting 61 percent of spread money. The total opened at 137.5, dipped to 134.5 midweek and is now 135, with ticket count and money both just shy of 3/1 on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Virginia Tech Hokies vs Florida Gators betting preview

Injuries

Virginia Tech: Jalen Cone G (Out).
Florida: Keyontae Johnson F (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 7-1-1 in the Gators' last nine games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Virginia Tech vs. Florida.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

March Madness odds opened this game as a near pick'em – Florida is a slim one-point favorite – so this really comes down to whether you want to back the volatility of the Gators or the steadiness of Virginia Tech.

Florida went 14-9 SU in the SEC this year, with key wins over LSU, Tennessee and West Virginia. But it also has losses to South Carolina, Mississippi State and Kentucky. Plus, those victories all came earlier in the season, as the Gators enter the NCAA Tournament having lost three of their last four, while failing to cover the spread in four straight and going 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall.

The Gators are the top shooting team in the conference, ranking 58th nationally in field goal percentage (46.4), 69th in effective field goal percentage (52.5 percent), hitting 35.7 percent of their 3-pointers, and draining 75.7 percent of their free throws. Florida, which is 40th nationally in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ranking, is led by guard Tre Mann and his 15 points per game this season.

Contrast that with Virginia Tech, which went 15-6 SU (11-10 ATS) this year but has alternated wins and losses over its last five games (1-4 ATS in that stretch). The Hokies are a scrappy bunch, sitting 55th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 54th in defensive efficiency, and were last seen falling to 83-71 to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals.

It's hard to blame the Hokies for that performance, however, as that was their first game in 12 days – and just their third contest in five weeks – due to COVID interruptions. Forward Keve Aluma, who transferred from Wofford last season to join coach Mike Young, leads the team with 15.9 points and 8.0 rebounds per game, but Virginia Tech doesn't have the raw talent that Florida has—it gets after you on the boards and aims to outwork its opponents.

So how do we decide which way to lean between a more-talented-yet-inconsistent squad and a steadier team that hasn't really played that much? Well, when it comes down to crunch time, the Gators will have the best player on the floor in Mann, who has turned it up lately, dropping 22.6 points over his last five contests. Also, when we get to the final minutes, free throws will be paramount, and the Gators are 40th in the nation from the charity stripe, while Virginia Tech is 220th—and is shooting just 56.3 percent over its last two games.

Tight games like this will come down to the little things, and we think the little things will slightly favor Florida.

PREDICTION: Florida -1 (-110)

Over/Under Pick

Florida has seen the Under go 7-1-1 in its last nine games, while Va. Tech is 3-7 O/U in its last 10 contests.

These programs can get it done defensively, as they both give up fewer than 70 points per game and are 37th (Florida) and 54th (Virginia Tech) in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Gators play at a pretty average pace, sitting 165th in adjusted tempo, while Virginia Tech likes to take the air out of the ball a little more, sitting 293rd in adjusted tempo and averaging 18.2 seconds per possession (265th in the nation).

The Hokies will not want to get into a track meet, which will favor the more-talented Florida team, so look for them to try to slow this game down—which makes us feel this will slide Under the number.  

PREDICTION: Under 137.5 (-110)

First half pick

Despite not being a great ATS play recently, the Hokies have been a strong first-half play over their last five games, sporting an average first-half margin of +6.6 when not trailing at halftime in any of those contests.

Compare that to Florida, which has trailed at the break in three of its last five games, signifying that slow starts have been an issue for the Gators.

In what is expected to be a tight battle from start to finish, we like Florida to win—but let's take a dabble on Virginia Tech to be tied (at worst) heading into the break.

PREDICTION: Virginia Tech first half +0.5 (-113)

Virginia Tech vs Florida betting card

• Florida -1 (-110)
• Under 137.5 (-110)
• Virginia Tech first half +0.5 (-113)

Where can I bet on March Madness odds?

March Madness is one of the most popular times of the year for sports bettors, which of course makes it one of the busiest times of the year for online sportsbooks. Every betting site will offer March Madness odds but the top sites are safe and secure, offer a wide range of banking options, and give you a ton of markets for each game. Check out the best March Madness betting sites in your region.

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