The No. 6 Texas Longhorns (21-11) are desperately looking to shift their fortune as losers of three straight and they will open March Madness against arguably the hottest team in the nation, the Virginia Tech Hokies (23-12), winners of 13 of their last 15 and on a fresh four-game win streak that netted them the ACC championship. Can the Longhorns keep their chins up and set the ship straight or will the Hokies continue on what is arguably the country's hottest streak?
Continue reading for free March Madness picks and analysis for Texas vs. Virginia Tech on Friday, March 18th.
Virginia Tech vs Texas odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Texas opened as 1.5 point favorites and have now moved to a pick 'em. The total opened at 126 and has since come down to 123.5 by the time of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Virginia Tech vs Texas predictions
Predictions made on 3/17/2022 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Virginia Tech vs Texas game info
• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Virginia Tech vs Texas betting preview
Injuries
Virginia Tech: None.
Texas: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
No. 11 seeds that rank 50th or better in KenPom adjusted efficiency are 24-14 against the spread in the last 15 years. Virginia Tech ranks 22nd in KenPom. Find more NCAA betting trends for Virginia Tech vs. Texas.
Virginia Tech vs Texas picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Chris Beard's first year as the Longhorns' head coach has certainly had its ups and downs. In early January, the team had an impressive 12-2 record to its name, and Beard's take on the "No Middle" was seemingly paying massive dividends with Texas giving up 60+ points just once during that span and holding opponents to sub-50 scores seven times in those games.
Since then, the Longhorns have gone 9-9, including a current three-game skid they find themselves in heading into the Big Dance. During that 12-2 start, the Longhorns gave up an average of 49.1 points per game, and in the 18 games since, they have allowed 65.3 points per game. That large gap is hardly something that can be explained away with variance. One explanation is that although Beard made a big change this past offseason by coming to Texas, he remained in the same conference of the program he left — the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
It could be theorized that the rest of the Big 12 is largely familiar with Beard's defensive philosophies by now, and have a much easier time navigating Beard's defense than unsuspecting non-conference opponents do. This is further supported by the fact that the No Middle defense is used by Baylor as well, who also saw diminishing returns on defense in conference play, although they have season-long injury issues they can point to as a mitigating factor.
That Longhorns defense will have to match up with a Hokies' offense that seemingly has everyone coming alive at once. In their last five games, they've had four different players lead the team in scoring. That includes the three wins they strung together in the ACC tournament during which they had a 20+ point scorer in each game, en route to handing losses to three teams in the tournament field (Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Duke). They have been led this year by Keve Aluma (15.8 ppg), who is deadly at mid-range, shooting 50.4% on two-point jumpers this season.
On that side of the ball, Texas has leading man Timmy Allen (12.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg), who contributes across the stat sheet. But the Longhorns seriously lack deep threats, having just one player shooting about 35% from deep in their primary rotation (Courtney Ramey, 35.6%). And to that point, Texas doesn't have any outstanding offensive strength when looking at the stat sheet. The Longhorns fail to rank in the Top 3 of the Big 12 in any offensive statistical category.
But again, Texas has not necessarily been about beating teams by putting up a barrage of points. Ten of their 21 wins have come without scoring more than 70 points, which is pretty abnormal when cross-referencing the tournament field. And to the first aforementioned point about Texas' defense and the gap in opponents' familiarity and success against it, Virginia Tech obviously does not hail from the ACC. It stands to reason that the Hokies will have a defense in front of them that may take them a tad too long to deconstruct.
Prediction: Texas PK (-113)
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Over/Under analysis
After making the argument that Virginia Tech may struggle offensively, it'd be difficult to argue for anything but the Under when it comes to the total. In regard to the gap between offensive performances from non-conference and conference opponents, Texas played 10-3 to the Under against non-conference opponents and 11-8 to the Over against the Big 12.
Texas brings a defense that ranks 13th in the nation in KenPom defensive efficiency and while Virginia Tech's is nowhere near that level, they are still a respectable 55th in that regard. And to their credit, they haven't allowed an opposing offense to score more than 70 points more than once over their last 12 games.
And against the two non-conference offenses they have faced this year that made the tournament, they have fared fairly well: Memphis (69) and Dayton (62) were held under that same 70-point mark.
Prediction: Under 123.5 (-110)
Best bet
Anyone arguing that Texas' play of late has been uninspiring would be making a fair argument. But an equally valid argument could easily be made that Texas fares much better against unfamiliar and unsuspecting non-Big 12 teams when it comes to their iteration of the No Middle defense.
And while Texas hasn't shown inspiring play in recent weeks, Virginia Tech hasn't exactly put together a complete 2022 campaign that has blown anyone's socks off. Sure, the Hokies' recent performance in the ACC tournament was electric and they are more deserving of their flowers for that. But if we are going to judge Texas for their entire body of work, Virginia Tech deserves a similar level of scrutiny.
No matchup where the argument for either team is "they are less worse" inspires much confidence, but Texas at least brings a nuanced approach with tangible returns in a situation like this whereas the best argument for the Hokies is that they are running hot.
Pick: Texas PK (-113)
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