The Wright State Raiders won their First Four game on Wednesday, giving the team the right to face the top-seeded Arizona Wildcats in March Madness. Arizona is fresh off of a thrilling victory over the UCLA Bruins in the Pac 12 Tournament final, and this was one of the best teams in basketball all season long.
Will the Raiders find a way to keep this game even remotely close against the Wildcats? Keep reading our Wright State vs. Arizona March Madness picks and predictions for Friday, March 18 to find out how to bet this one.
Wright State vs Arizona odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Wildcats were laying 21.5 when March Madness odds first became available, and you’re starting to see them move to 22-point favorites in this one. The total, however, started up at 156.5 and is starting to move down as of late Thursday morning. It’s now at 155.5 on most books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Wright State vs Arizona predictions
Predictions made on 3/17/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Wright State vs Arizona game info
• Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
• Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:27 p.m. ET
• TV: truTV
Wright State vs Arizona betting preview
Injuries
Wright State: No injuries to report.
Arizona: Kerr Kriisa G (Doubtful).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Wright State is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight games as an underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Wright State vs. Arizona.
Wright State vs Arizona picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Wildcats proved they can win games without Kriisa by taking down the Pac-12 Tournament with him on the sidelines. Of course, Arizona will need the guard back in order to make the run it’s hoping to in the Big Dance, but it can get by in the opening rounds either way. Dalen Terry took on more of a primary ball-handling role with Kriisa sidelined, and the sophomore showed that he was up for the challenge — and he’s now getting some chatter as a late first-round pick in the 2022 NBA Draft.
With him and Bennedict Mathurin, the Wildcats still have an elite backcourt. And the frontcourt is special, with Christian Koloko, Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo all being great options inside.
That rotation of big men is a huge part of the reason that Arizona should beat up on a team like Wright State. The tallest player that produces for the Raiders this year is forward Grant Basile, who is just 6-foot-9.
However, Tubelis is the shortest one of those previously mentioned Wildcats big men, and the Lithuanian is 6-foot-11. With that in mind, it’s hard to see Arizona not dominating the glass in this one. And it should also be really hard on the Raiders to score around the rim, where Koloko is one of the best rim protectors in basketball.
Wright State does have some talented guards in Tanner Holden and Trey Calvin, who combine to average 34.8 points per game this season. However, both Terry and Mathurin have a lot of size in the Wildcats backcourt, and they’re both excellent team defenders. They won’t leave the Raiders guards open for many shots, and they’ll use their length to contest as many shots as they can.
Overall, the talent mismatch in this game is just outrageous — which his expected when a No. 1 faces a No. 16. The only question mark in this one is how well the Wildcats shoot the three without Kriisa. If they aren’t hitting from the outside, they should still cover this spread. But if they do, it’s likely you’ll see them win by at least 30.
Prediction: Arizona -21.5 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
The Under is 7-4 in the 11 games Arizona has played against teams with winning percentages of 60.0% to 80.0% this season, and it’s also 6-1 when Wright State is coming off four or more consecutive games in which the team covered the spread.
It’s also worth noting that the Under is 3-1 in the four games that the Raiders have played against teams that outrebound opponents by at least 7.0 rebounds per game, and they haven’t played a frontcourt quite like this Wildcats one.
Even with Arizona’s elite offense getting to go up against Wright State’s mediocre defense, this game shouldn’t end up being as high-scoring as the number suggests it will be. With Kriisa out, the Wildcats are missing a guy that can get hot from deep and put points on the board in a hurry.
Arizona will also be really tough to score on for this Wright State team, and blowouts tend to be lower-scoring, in general. And a blowout is exactly what this game should turn into.
Prediction: Under 156.5 (-110)
Best bet
In the five games that Arizona was favored by 20 or more points against teams that don’t hail from Power 6 conferences this season, the Wildcats were 3-1-1 ATS. Arizona won those games by an average of 46.0 points per game.
This is obviously a small step up in competition when compared to the teams that the Wildcats played early in the season, with the Raiders being a conference champion and coming off a First Four victory. But that average margin of victory shows you how big the gap is between a title contender and a school that struggles to recruit high-level players, and you should see the difference in this one.
Arizona is also 5-0 straight up and 3-2 ATS when playing in neutral-court games this season, and the Wildcats also happen to be 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in March. Meanwhile, Wright State is just 2-5 both SU and ATS as an underdog this year.
Pick: Arizona -21.5 (-110)
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