The Houston Cougars might be one of the best five-seeds in the history of March Madness. But if you care about the history of the tournament, you’d like to know that a No. 5 seed has never won the NCAA Tournament.
Standing in Houston’s way tonight are the Villanova Wildcats, tournament stalwarts that should make for a grand-it-out matchup. How does one go about navigating its prop betting markets?
Here are our March Madness prop picks and predictions for Houston vs. Villanova in the Elite Eight Saturday night.
Houston vs Villanova prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis. Each odds widget below represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated US sportsbooks.
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Houston vs Villanova Elite Eight props
Coll of the wild(cats)
Collin Gillespie is averaging 15.9 points per game this season, and although tonight’s game will feature fewer possessions than normal, I still like his Over in this spot.
Gillespie is going to play nearly the entire game, and with how often Houston fouls, Gillespie should get to the line at a high rate. He didn’t sniff the foul line against Michigan but ended up hitting 4-of-10 from deep.
From the foul line, he’s shooting 90.2% and from deep, he’s knocking down 41.5% of shots. As a volume shooter, he’s going to be a bright spot with this offense tonight.
PICK: Collin Gillespie Over 14.5 Points (-115 at DraftKings)
Jermaine in the Membrane
Jermaine Samuels leads the Wildcats in rebounds per game with 6.4. Since tournament play began in the Big East, the big man has dominated the glass and continues to get a large number of minutes.
Samuels started the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament with eight rebounds, then had 12 in his following game, and followed that performance up with 8, 9, 8, and 7 rebounds.
Samuels is efficient on both the offensive and defensive glass, and he’ll be tough to contain in this matchup.
PICK: Jermaine Samuels Over 6.5 Rebounds (-135 at DraftKings)
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Fade Taze
Taze Moore is a freakish athlete, but he hasn’t been making the best decisions recently.
In Houston’s game against Arizona, Moore played only 17 minutes and had four fouls with two turnovers and just three points.
Sure, in the previous game, Moore went off for 21. But that’s an outlier type of performance. Moore has a usage rate that ranks fifth on the team, so, if the starting five is out there, Moore is the least likely candidate to score.
Again, Houston fouls at a high rate and Villanova is smart enough to exploit that. Grab Moore’s Under and hope he continues to make silly fouls that puts him on the bench.
PICK: Taze Moore Under 10.5 Points (-105 at DraftKings)
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