Were you on Texas Tech and squeaked through overtime? Were you on Michigan State, hoping to thread that needle? I was with you on that latter concern. If the Spartans had not won, my last personal March Madness survivor entry would have died.
Instead, we persist in our March Madness picks.
Heading into this Elite Eight, you need to make a decision. It is a philosophical one. You may reveal much of who you are as a human being.
Are you a contrarian? A chaos agent? Or are you predictable?
There is no shame in falling under the “predictable” category. You have the best chance of making some money off your survivor pool. It will just be the least amount of money out of a survivor pool, if pondering the expected value of each of these three approaches.
To clarify: In nearly every NCAA Tournament Survivor competition, you need to pick two teams to advance out of the Elite Eight, day of play no longer a concern.
Who are you? Are you an all-out contrarian? Or are you someone who will mix predictability with a contrarian approach? Dare you toss in a dash of chaos? Of the eight teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament, six warrant thorough consideration this weekend, and those six fall into three pairs.
Mix and match them as you will.
Best March Madness Elite 8 survivor picks
Predictable: Auburn Tigers and Houston Cougars
Yes, Auburn and Houston are the two shortest favorites in the Elite Eight, but then again, they are favorites this weekend. Taking the Tigers and the Cougars qualifies as “predictable” because Florida and Duke will be favored in the Final Four.
Who is most likely to reach the national championship? Florida and Duke.
The perk of this predictable approach is that you are best positioned to last the longest in your survivor league, speaking in percentages.
The drawback of this predictable approach is that you are quite likely to face a split in the survivor pool’s pot, if not exposed to a tiebreaker. (Most tiebreakers hinge on a sum of the seed rankings of the teams you used to advance in your survivor competition.)
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Contrarian: Duke Blue Devils and Florida Gators
A zig while most zag. If Duke and Florida are the most likely teams to make the national championship game, then selecting one or both of them now to reach the Final Four means you are betting on at least one upset in the Final Four.
Could one of them lose this weekend? Yes.
If Alabama remains hotter than the surface of the sun, then no one will beat the Tide, not even Duke, as it starts multiple first-round NBA draft picks.
Is that likely? No, and certainly not against a defense that allows opponents to make just 31.0% of their 3-pointers this season. But it is possible.
Texas Tech has beaten Houston, and that alone is logic enough to say the Red Raiders can beat the Gators. Again, is it likely? No. Is it possible? Yes.
The contrarian thought lives in that middle area, leaning into the most likely result(s) this weekend in order to enjoy an upset in San Antonio.
Chaos: Michigan State Spartans and Tennessee Volunteers
You could add a category here of “Not Madness, But Mayhem.” That would feature Texas Tech and Alabama. They are the biggest underdogs this weekend, and if you have read this far, let’s offer a personal confession: My survivor payday will depend on Texas Tech winning.
I suppose you just learned something about me as a human being; I thrive in mayhem.
Plenty of folks in your survivor pool will take Auburn and Houston. Quite possibly, the majority of remaining entries in your survivor pool will take Auburn and Houston. That is the inherent likelihood of the category described as “Predictable.”
The “Chaos” approach obviously runs directly counter to those. Could chaos happen?
Up until Friday, Auburn had looked wounded and lackluster for weeks. No one is up for the task of exploiting that more than Tom Izzo and Michigan State.
An argument for Tennessee would conflict with many personal beliefs, and a good portion of this writing has intended to be honest about those things. There is no belief in Rick Barnes here. I suppose that is partly why this category is described as “Chaos.”
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) March 29, 2025
