Get set for a Texas-sized Birmingham Regional 3 Elite 8 showdown when the TCU Horned Frogs meet the Texas Longhorns.
The Longhorns are heavily favored, but tonight's TCU vs. Texas predictions expect the Horned Frogs to make a game of it behind the scoring of Olympian Hailey Van Lith.
Read on for my Women’s March Madness picks for Monday, March 31.
Who will win TCU vs Texas?
It's not my best bet, but TCU can pull off another upset. The Horned Frogs are an offensive machine behind Olympian 3v3 star Hailey Van Lith.
Van Lith is an experienced ball-handler and runs the pick-and-roll with 6-foot-7 center Sedona Price like seasoned pros.
Texas likes to flex its defensive muscles behind its 22 points per game from turnovers, but TCU is extremely tidy with the ball.
TCU could burn the Longhorns off the trap. If it limits an uber-aggressive Texas stop unit to under a dozen points from turnovers (it can), TCU has the scoring punch to pull off another upset.
TCU vs Texas prediction
My best bet: TCU +7.5 (-110 at bet365)
The 2025 TCU Horned Frogs boast one of the highest-scoring offenses in the country and are used to catching teams by surprise.
They’ve scored 71+ in all three tourney contests behind the pick-and-roll game of Hailey Van Lith and Sedona Price while allowing fewer than 70 PPG.
Slowing down the Van Lith to Sedona Price pick-and-roll game won’t be easy, and Madison Connor knocked down 45% of her 279 triple attempts this season.
According to Her Hoop Stats, Texas has the third-rated defense. The Longhorns played 12 games this season against Top 15 offenses like TCU while allowing only 70 points thrice.
The Longhorns averaged 22 points from turnovers per night, but TCU is one of the best ball-handling teams nationally, and if those swipes aren’t there, Texas will be in trouble.
Texas must score from somewhere else. The Longhorns may have held some stout offenses to fewer than 70 points, but TCU defends better than each of those groups, and that is why TCU has a shot at another upset.
Tonight’s game will be physical. Van Lith’s international experience taught her how to shake and score in a physical environment while dropping dimes when the shot isn’t there.
Texas needs points from turnovers, and those won’t be as bountiful. It'll have to find another way to score the rock, and TCU boasts the 14th-best defense at Her Hoops Stats.
TCU vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)
TCU +7.5
TCU team total Over 66.5
Over 129.5
TCU has scored at least 67 points in seven of nine and 71+ in three tourney games.
Texas limited high-scoring offenses at home, but South Carolina hung 67 on it in January and 64 points in the SEC tourney finale.
That’s why I’m playing the Over. Texas will have to score to win this game. The Horned Frogs' best defense has been their offense, and they probably won’t mind turning this into an offensive slugfest.
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TCU vs Texas odds
| TCU | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| +275 | Moneyline | -350 |
| +7.5 (-110) | Spread | -7.5 (-110) |
| Over 128 (-110) | Total | Under 128 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of bet365
How to watch TCU vs Texas
| Location | Legacy Arena at BJCC, Birmingham, AL |
| Date | Monday, 3-31-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Not intended for use in MA.
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