Maryland vs Wisconsin Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Terrapins Playing Spoiler in Minny?

If anyone finds the Wisconsin Badgers from the season’s first three months, would they please put them on a bus to Minneapolis immediately?

Wisconsin’s absolute collapse in February will knock the Badgers from a probable No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament to a No. 6 seed. A loss this afternoon to the Maryland Terrapins could turn that into a 7-seed.

Let’s not dawdle. Let’s not be conservative. Let’s bet on that conference tournament odds upset in our free college basketball picks as we preview Maryland vs. Wisconsin on March 14, with tip set for about 2:30 ET.

Maryland vs Wisconsin best odds

Maryland vs Wisconsin picks and predictions

Find a reason to believe in the Wisconson Badgers. Go on, try. In 11 games since February 1, they've gone 3-8 outright and 2-9 against the spread. They lost outright five times as favorites, including three times as multi-score favorites.

Before that month-plus lull, Wisconsin was 16-4 SU and 10-8-2 ATS. Advanced metrics considered them a Top-15 team. The roster suffered no notable injury or departure. There is no known drama afoot. The Badgers just fell apart.

The numbers underscore how complete the dissolution was. Wisconsin ranked No. 6 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per barttorvik.com, up until Feb. 1. Since then, the Badgers have ranked No. 54. Their adjusted defensive efficiency fell to No. 99 from No. 52.

In its last 11 games, Wisconsin has looked like anything but an NCAA Tournament team. It may as well have become the equivalent of a Wednesday entrant into the Big Ten Conference Tournament bracket.

Speaking of Wednesday entrants into the Big Ten tourney, Maryland has only improved as the season's gone along. If looking at efficiency rankings since just Feb. 1, the Terrapins are measurably better than the Badgers, mostly thanks to their defense.

Maryland’s defense set a high floor all season, and marginal improvement from the offense suffered the optical misery of repeatedly falling just short throughout February. The Terps lost by two scores or fewer five times in their last nine games. Throughout all of Big Ten play, Maryland went 2-8 in games settled by six points or fewer.

That may reflect offensive struggles when it matters most. The Terps ranked last in conference play in 3-pointer percentage, after all, and they preferred a pace ranking in the bottom third of the country.

However, that kind of record in games with such a margin of error should regress to a mean. And Wisconsin’s discovered ineptitudes should be the perfect opportunity for Maryland to enjoy that regression.

My best bet: Maryland moneyline (+145 at BetMGM)

Maryland vs Wisconsin same-game parlay

Maryland moneyline

Under 132.5

Jahmir Young Over 19.5 points

+750 at DraftKings

Let’s reuse a pun from Wednesday’s preview of the first game of this conference tournament: The Terrapins prefer a turtle-like pace. And yet, the Badgers play slower.

Wisconsin’s defensive weakness is 3-pointers; Maryland’s offense would be better off if it never took any threes. This could become a Big Ten game of lore.

But when expecting an Under like this, adding the Over on a player points prop increases the payout on the SGP more than it should. Jahmir Young is the best player in this game and has scored 20+ points in 14 of 21 conference games this season.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Maryland vs Wisconsin spread and Over/Under analysis

Books opened with Maryland as a 4-point underdog late Wednesday evening, a number that quickly moved to +3.5.

That mark came only a couple hours after the Terrapins routed Rutgers, a dominant win sparked by an immediate and decisive lead. They led 17-3 less than five minutes into the game. The Knights would get the deficit to single digits for only one possession after that.

One could argue the line moving immediately upon open was an overreaction to that Wednesday win, but realize Wisconsin was favored by 7.5 points in a home game against Maryland on Feb. 20. Assign three points of that to the Badgers’ home-court advantage, dropping that Feb. 20 spread to the equivalent of -4.5 on a neutral court.

And then add in how bad Wisconsin has been of late. It has been more than a point worse than it was three weeks ago.

The total opened at 133 and ticked downward to 132.5, a slip leaning into Maryland’s usual, the Terps falling short of the pregame total in 19 of 31 games this season.

Maryland vs Wisconsin betting trend to know

In 15 Big Ten games with totals of 140 or lower, Maryland cashed the Under in nine of them. Find more college basketball betting trends for Maryland vs. Wisconsin.

Maryland vs Wisconsin game info

Maryland vs Wisconsin key injuries

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