The Florida Atlantic Owls will host their first ranked opponent since 1997 on Thursday night as they welcome the Memphis Tigers to Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena as both teams open their American Athletic Conference schedules.
The Tigers showed their mettle during a difficult non-conference schedule, and I’m expecting them to cover on the road tonight in my Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic predictions.
I’ll provide a full breakdown of this matchup in my free college basketball picks for Thursday, January 2 below.
Memphis vs Florida Atlantic prediction
My best bet
Memphis -3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
After playing one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country, it’s understandable that some in the Memphis Tigers camp feel like they are being disrespected a bit nationally. The Tigers are 10-3 with wins over the likes of the Connecticut Huskies and Michigan State Spartans, though a stunning loss to the Arkansas State Red Wolves has tamped down on their overall record.
Still, Memphis comes into the AAC schedule as the No. 21 team in the country and should have their way with their conference foes. The gap between the Tigers and the rest of the conference will be made clear tonight against Florida Atlantic, which should be one of their tougher opponents in league play.
The Owls are 7-6 on the year, but haven’t played nearly the schedule Memphis has. Florida Atlantic has a nice win over the Oklahoma State Cowboys earlier in the season, but was blown out by the Michigan State Spartans 86-69 in its last game on December 21.
The biggest issue for the Owls has been perimeter defense. Florida Atlantic is allowing opponents to shoot 39.3% from beyond the arc, nearly dead last in the 364-team Division I field. Opponents have noticed, shooting 24.7 threes per game against the Owls this season.
We can expect more of the same from Memphis. The Tigers were once the top-shooting team in the country from deep; even though they’ve cooled down a bit, they still rank No. 11 in three-point shooting at 40.2% on the year.
Each of Memphis’ top three scorers shoot over 40% from deep, and we can expect PJ Haggerty (22.1 ppg), Tyrese Hunter (15.0 ppg) and Colby Rogers (12.8 ppg) to spread the floor and test Florida Atlantic’s ability to defend in the half-court.
On the surface, it may look like Memphis isn’t great defensively either, as opponents are scoring 75.5 ppg against the Tigers. But that number is influenced both by their difficult schedule and their high-tempo pace of play. Adjusting for these factors, KenPom.com rates Memphis as a solid 38th in the country in defensive rating.
Rather than an evenly matched shootout, then, this game has the makings of a big win for the Tigers. On a neutral court, Memphis could reasonably expect to win by double digits, and Florida Atlantic’s home-court advantage isn’t enough to justify making the spread this tight.
Memphis vs Florida Atlantic same-game parlay
Memphis -3.5
Over 162.5
PJ Haggerty 20+ points
The Memphis offense should fire on all cylinders tonight, and that’s the angle I’ll be attacking with my same-game parlay. Along with taking Memphis to cover the spread, I’m also betting on the Over at 162.5 points. Both teams are trending towards the Over this season, and the Tigers should take full advantage of a shaky Owls defense to run up the total tonight.
Leading that charge will be PJ Haggerty (22.1 ppg). Haggerty can score from anywhere on the court and has gotten above the 20-point mark in five of his last seven games. He’s the leading scorer for Memphis and should enjoy a solid boost to his numbers against Florida Atlantic.
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Memphis vs Florida Atlantic odds
Memphis vs Florida Atlantic live odds
Memphis vs Florida Atlantic opening odds
- Spread: Memphis -3.5 | Florida Atlantic +3.5
- Moneyline: Memphis -170 | Florida Atlantic +145
- Over/Under: Over 162.5 | Under 162.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Memphis vs Florida Atlantic betting trend to know
Memphis is 5-2 ATS in games played it has played away from home this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic.
How to watch Memphis vs Florida Atlantic
| Location: | Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena, Boca Raton, Florida |
| Date: | Thursday, 1-2-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN 2 |
Memphis vs Florida Atlantic key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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