It has not been a good year in the state of Michigan for college basketball and the lowly Michigan Wolverines will have their hands full tonight with a Michigan State Spartans team that’s far better than its record otherwise indicates.
The college basketball odds have the Spartans as 6.5-point road favorites and Tom Izzo’s team needs to keep winning to stay on the right side of the March Madness odds bubble. Luckily for Izzo, the Wolverines have been one of the biggest messes all season, especially on defense.
Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan State vs. Michigan on Saturday, February 17.
Michigan State vs Michigan best odds
Michigan State vs Michigan picks and predictions
Anything can happen in a rivalry game, especially when the clear better team is on the road, and for that reason, the game total is more enthralling than the spread as the Michigan State Spartans head to Ann Arbor to take on the Michigan Wolverines.
While Tom Izzo’s program is just 16-9, it has suffered from a grueling schedule and has been playing March Madness-worthy basketball for much of the season. Sparty is fourth in the Big Ten at 8-6 and has the offensive talent to take this dreadful Michigan defense to task.
The Spartans are averaging a solid 75.3 points per game but rank 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and 19th in team offensive Bayesian performance rating, per Evan Miyakawa. Michigan State put up 81 on the Wolverines the last time these two played and has an ace up its sleeve in guard Tyson Walker.
Walker has been among the most prolific scorers in the Big Ten this season with 18.4 points per game on 37.9% shooting from three. The dynamic guard leads an offense that’s 40th in the country in shooting percentage (47.6%) and 30th in 3-point percentage (37.2%).
Beyond Walker, the Spartans have multiple trustworthy scorers in Malik Hall, Jaden Akins, and AJ Hoggard. All three are averaging double-digit points with Hall being a threat in the paint with his 58.7% shooting percentage from two and Akins being a sharpshooter, hitting 39.7% of his threes. Off the bench, Tre Holloman has been an injection of offense, hitting 41.4% from deep.
The shooting consistency is what has stood out most for Michigan State, but this team also moves the rock to get its best scorers good looks. The Spartans are 18th in assists per game at 17.2, led by Hoggard’s 5.2.
With so many scorers, Izzo’s squad is going to give Michigan’s defense all it can handle. The Wolverines are among the worst defenses in college basketball, allowing 79.1 points per game (340th), and ranking 181st in both adjusted defensive efficiency and team defensive Bayesian performance rating.
Teams are shooting 46% from the floor, 50.8% from two, and 36.2% from three against Michigan, all of which rank outside the Top 230. That poor defense has led to quick scores and more possessions for opposing offenses and is why teams average a whopping 63.1 field goals per game against the Wolverines.
The only thing that’s held Michigan together — and, theoretically, kept Juwan Howard employed — is its offense having some bright moments. The Wolverines are scoring 75.7 points per game and rank 69th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 62nd in team offensive Bayesian performance rating.
The trio of Dug McDaniel, Olivier Nkamhoua, and Terrance Williams have kept the Wolverines in a few more games than expected this season. McDaniel leads the way with 16.8 points and 2.1 made threes per game.
The Wolverines' 3-point shooting will be the key to Howard’s offense with teams putting up 24.4 threes per game against the Spartans and hitting 7.9 of them.
Nkamhoua, Williams, and Nimari Burnett are all willing 3-point shooters, with each taking at least three per game. As a team, Michigan shoots 36.3% from deep, the 66th best in the country, and has six players hitting at least one per game.
If Michigan State can dominate this wretched Wolverines defense and Michigan can get its 3-point game going, the Over has a clear path.
My best bet: Over 143.5 (-112 at PROLINE+)
Michigan State vs Michigan same-game parlay
Over 143.5
Michigan State -6.5
On paper, Michigan State is a Top-25 team worthy of making the NCAA Tournament. It’s one of just 10 teams to rank in the Top 25 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency.
It has the talent to dominate lowly programs like Michigan and did so last time these two played, winning 81-62 while covering the 12-point spread. With Michigan State’s offense coming alive down the stretch, it should once again be able to beat the Wolverines in explosive fashion.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan State vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
With how bad the Wolverines have been this season, the Spartans opened as a 6.0 to 6.5-point road favorite. The line hasn’t shifted much, but FanDuel does have Michigan State -5.5 at -118.
While the Spartans haven’t won as much as fans would like, they have been solid against the spread at 14-10-1, including 4-1 over the last five games. Meanwhile, the Wolverines aren’t just one of the worst teams in the country, they’re one of the worst ATS too. Michigan is 7-18 ATS, including 3-11 in the Big Ten.
The game total opened as low as 142.5 and as high as 144 with most books now offering it at 143.5. Sparty is 12-13 betting the Over this season but has hit it in each of its last two games. Michigan’s defense is so bad that it’s 15-10 betting the Over.
Michigan State vs Michigan betting trend to know
Michigan has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Michigan.
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Michigan State vs Michigan game info
| Location: | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, February 17, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Michigan State vs Michigan key injuries
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