Alabama and Mississippi State meet up late Tuesday evening for an SEC matchup.
There's still a little doubt about who will end the regular season as the conference champion. Alabama and Florida enter today two games back in the standings behind likely No. 1 overall seed Auburn. They'll need a slip-up to make things interesting.
Outside of that, a game like tonight is an opportunity for the Tide to build their case to be a No. 1 seed in the dance. As for the Bulldogs, they'll look to break their opponents' seven-game head-to-head win streak.
Read on for my Alabama vs. Mississippi State predictions and college basketball picks for Tuesday, February 25, featuring a Mark Sears prop.
Mississippi State vs Alabama prediction
My best bet
Mark Sears Over 4.5 assists (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
Even though the Alabama Crimson Tide won the first meeting of the year in Starkville, they got a bit lucky.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs got a sustainable offense performance, and Alabama got a torrid shooting night from deep, going 15 of 31. Chris Youngblood was the most significant contributor to that performance, as he knocked down seven from deep. It was the most 3-pointers the fifth-year senior made in a single game in his career.
While that's not repeatable in this matchup, it did highlight a problem that can be exposed again. It's leading me to my best bet in the prop market.
As you might imagine, Mark Sears soared over this assists number with nine in the first meeting with such a hot shooting night. However, this aspect of that game is much more repeatable because it exploited a problem that has been season-long for Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs are one of the better defenses in the sport, no matter how you slice it. It's the identity of Chris Jans as a head coach and what he's built his programs around. They'll enter this game just inside the Top 40 in defensive efficiency per BarTorvik, and they are slightly better in that metric in KenPom.
Despite Alabama being the best offense in the country by virtually any definable metric, I expect defensive improvement here compared to the first matchup. Still, the struggles State have had defensively against "drives and kicks" will hinder them once again.
Mississippi State ranks in the Bottom 38% nationally in plays defined as "drive and kicks" by the opponent. That's a problem against Alabama because while they don't run these sets a ton, they are as efficient as any program in the county running them. Their 1.04 points per possession is the second-best among Power Four programs nationally.
Sears is the primary initiator of these plays and, thus, is the player most likely to benefit in the assist department because of it.
There are other clear chances for Sears to get a few more assists, whether in transition and the randomness of those situations or in the halfcourt on big cuts and rolls, which is another trouble spot for the Bulldogs and something he is the primary initiator of.
No matter how you slice it, this number tonight is too low. I'd play this up to -162.
Mississippi State vs Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)
Mark Sears Over 4.5 assists
Mississippi State +8.5
I projected this spread at 7.5, so while there's little value, the non-correlation boost is profitable enough to play in a same-game parlay.
This is slightly too large of a number for me to expect Alabama to cover against an opponent that has so many offensive advantages. Since the start of February, the Tide's defense has taken a step back and ranks 70th in defensive efficiency.
The Bulldogs offense has made strides in that time and came in around the 40th. I expect State to do enough tonight to keep this one within the number.
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Mississippi State vs Alabama odds
Mississippi State vs Alabama live odds
Mississippi State vs Alabama opening odds
- Spread: Mississippi State +8 | Alabama -8
- Moneyline: Mississippi State +280 | Alabama -360
- Over/Under: Over 170 | Under 170
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mississippi State vs Alabama betting trend to know
Alabama has hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+5.70 Units/ 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Alabama.
How to watch Mississippi State vs Alabama
| Location | Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-25-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Mississippi State vs Alabama key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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