Mississippi State vs Auburn Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Tigers Earn Their Stripes

The No. 9-seeded Mississippi State Bulldogs face the No. 4-seed Auburn Tigers in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament bracket this afternoon. The Bulldogs might have punched their ticket to the NCAA tournament by upsetting No. 1 seed Tennessee on Friday. Meanwhile, Auburn cruised to an easy victory against South Carolina and has the sixth-best March Madness odds at +1,800 to win the national title. 

Conference tournament odds opened with the Tigers as 7.5-point favorites with the O/U at 143.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Mississippi State vs. Auburn on Saturday, March 16.

Mississippi State vs Auburn best odds

Mississippi State vs Auburn picks and predictions

The Mississippi State Bulldogs didn't just upset the Volunteers on Friday, they curb-stomped them. They proved their victory against the Vols back in January was no fluke as they once again beat the No. 5-ranked team in the country 73-56. The Bulldogs held the Vols to 31% shooting from the field and 24% from deep. While the Bulldogs struggled from 3-point range themselves, they were extremely efficient inside the arc, going 22-34 (64.7%) against an elite Tennessee defense.

As terrific as the Bulldogs looked, it's tough to overlook the fact that they've seldom played at that level this season. In fact, they had to rally in the second half to beat a mediocre LSU squad in the first round of the tourney and went 0-4 straight up and against the spread in their final four games of the regular season.

The Auburn Tigers had to settle for the No. 4 seed in this tournament but the KenPom ratings have them ranked as the No. 4 team in the entire country. Auburn is an analytics darling and is the only school in the Top 10 in both adjusted offensive efficiency (10th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (seventh). The Tigers manhandled the No. 15 South Carolina Gamecocks 86-55, dominating on both ends of the floor and holding them to a pathetic 28.1 FG% while turning the ball over just five times while draining 9 of 19 shots from beyond the arc.  

This Bulldogs team is coming off arguably their best game of the year and with a March Madness berth now likely locked up, this could be a letdown spot. This is the Bulldogs' third game in three days and they gave significant minutes to their starters on Friday night while Auburn rested key players down the stretch.

The Tigers have been more consistent throughout the season and stand out in key areas where the Bulldogs struggle. Offensively, the Bulldogs have turned the ball over at the highest rate in the conference, and on the other end of the floor, they have allowed SEC opponents to shoot a sizzling 53.9% from inside the arc. The Tigers shoot 53.9% from 2-point range and have the second-best opponent turnover rate in conference play.

In one of the wildest stats of the college basketball season, all 25 of Auburn's wins have come by double-digits. This team has no trouble winning with margin and should be able to cruise to victory against a Bulldogs squad that has overachieved in this tournament.

My best bet: Auburn -7.5 (-110 at bet365)

Mississippi State vs Auburn same-game parlay

Auburn -7.5

Under 143.5

Jaylin Williams Over 10.5 points

+ODDS at bet365

Both games between these teams went below the total this season with the previous meeting seeing a total of 141 and the first meeting having just 122. The Tigers like to push the pace but also slow opponents down, ranking 229th in the country in average possession length on defense. They should be able to control the pace against a Mississippi State squad that prefers a slower tempo themselves, ranking 237th in average possession length on offense. When you also factor in how stingy Auburn is on the defensive end of the floor, ranking second in the country in opponent eFG% (43.6%), the Under should cash again.

Auburn forward Jaylin Williams had just three points on two field-goal attempts yesterday but both numbers are massive outliers for the senior forward. Over the last 24 games, Williams is averaging 14.0 ppg on 59.5% shooting and he should go Over 10.5 points against a Mississippi State squad that hasn't been defending well at the rim.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mississippi State vs Auburn spread and Over/Under analysis

This line hit the board with Auburn at -7.5 and the total at 142.5. The spread has remained at -7.5 but the O/U has ticked up to 143.5 as of 10 a.m. ET.  

The Tigers have been one of the best teams in the country all year but there are still question marks about whether or not their backcourt is good enough to win in March. That said, their front court with Williams and center Johni Broome (16.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.2 bpg) is one of the best in the country. Despite some massive spreads placed in front of them, the Tigers have gone 13-5-1 ATS against SEC opponents this season.

The Bulldogs struggled down the stretch during the regular season but they seem to have turned it on at the right time. After trailing LSU by seven points at the half in the first round, they rallied in the second half to win by 10 points. They had an even easier time with the Vols last night, cruising to a 73-56 victory despite coming in as 9.5-point underdogs.

Mississippi State vs Auburn betting trend to know

The Tigers have covered the first half spread in 22 of their last 34 games (+10.45 Units / 27% ROI) while the Bulldogs are 12-19 ATS on their first-half spread in the last 31 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Auburn.

Mississippi State vs Auburn game info

Mississippi State vs Auburn key injuries

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