Mississippi State vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wagner Waxes Bulldogs Defense

Two of the top contenders in the Southeastern Conference will clash on Wednesday night as the Mississippi State Bulldogs head to Lexington to face the Kentucky Wildcats. 

The Bulldogs have lost two of their first three games to start conference play after an 11-2 non-conference record to start the season. The Wildcats just suffered their first loss in conference play last Saturday in College Station to end their six-game win streak. Will the Wildcats bounce back at home and cover in the college basketball odds this week? 

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Mississippi State vs. Kentucky at Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY on Wednesday, January 17.

Mississippi State vs Kentucky best odds

Mississippi State vs Kentucky picks and predictions

The Kentucky Wildcats have completely dominated this series both recently and historically. Kentucky has won nine of the last 10, with an SEC tournament loss in the dreadful COVID season being the lone Mississippi State Bulldogs victory. The Wildcats have also covered the spread in five of the last eight matchups.  

This will only be the third true road game of the season for the Bulldogs, and they failed to pull off a victory in the previous two. They typically rely on their defense and rebounding to win, but they will need to score much more than their usual low 70’s to keep up with these young Wildcats. 

Kentucky ranks third in the nation in scoring, averaging 90.8 points per game. They also rank eighth in KenPom’s offensive efficiency and 13th in adjusted tempo. The Cats average 66.7 field goal attempts per game (fifth) and 25.8 of those attempts are from downtown (52nd). Not only are they fast, but they also protect their possessions, ranking 17th in the country with only 9.7 turnovers per game. 

The biggest strength for this Bulldogs team is their ability to force bad shots and then out-rebound their opponents. While they will have a rebounding advantage in this game with Tolu Smith fully healthy, they will not find it easy to guard the Wildcats and force them into bad shots. Kentucky will use their athleticism to get around their defenders and force help defenders to leave open shooters. 

Freshman point guard D.J. Wagner has really come into his own over the past few weeks and has averaged 15.5 points and 3.3 assists per game over the past four contests. In those four games, the Wildcats averaged 91.3 points. Kentucky has only been held under 81 points once this year and that was the one game that Wagner missed due to injury. 

While I believe the Bulldogs’ great defense will not be enough to slow down the Wildcats’ fast offense, they will be able to score themselves. The Aggies scored a total of 108 points in the two games leading up to their matchup with Kentucky before scoring 97 on them. I certainly do not expect that from the Bulldogs, but they should do their part to contribute to the Over. 

My best bet: Over 154 (-110 at DraftKings)

Mississippi State vs Kentucky same-game parlay

Over 154

Tolu Smith 8+ rebounds

D.J. Wagner 10+ points

33% boost available

+294 +390 at DraftKings

In line with our best bet on the Over in this game, we will add a couple of player props that I prefer for this matchup. 

To start, we will rely on the rebound discrepancy in favor of the Bulldogs. The Wildcats allowed 49 rebounds, with 22 being offensive rebounds, to the Aggies last time out. Tolu Smith had 10 rebounds last game against Alabama. He may not reach double-digits, but he should be a solid choice for 8+ boards. 

The Wildcats’ offense will revolve around Wagner getting things going at the point guard position. With him averaging 15.5 points in the last four games and most of them coming off drives to the basket, I like him to reach double-digits yet again. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mississippi State vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis

This will only be the second time this entire season that the Bulldogs are underdogs. The other time was a home game against Tennessee, in which they were a 2-point underdog and won straight up by five. However, they lost both of their true road games this season by eight points to Georgia Tech and six points to South Carolina, respectively. 

This will be only the second game this season in which the Wildcats are favored by single-digits. Their previous time was a home game against Miami, where Kentucky dominated and won by 22 points. With the Wildcats at home, I like their chances of covering the spread. 

While the Bulldogs are not a great shooting team, the Wildcats’ biggest issue on defense is guarding the drive. They struggle to stay in front of their man and then it forces help defenders to leave their man and give up open shots. Unless the Bulldogs miss everything, this should be an easy Over. 

Mississippi State vs Kentucky betting trend to know

Kentucky has hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 32 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Kentucky.

Mississippi State vs Kentucky game info

Mississippi State vs Kentucky key injuries

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