The No. 22 ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs face off against the No. 19 Mississippi Rebels tonight.
Although the Bulldogs won the previous meeting between these rivals last month, my Mississippi State vs. Mississippi predictions are backing the Rebels this time around.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this SEC clash on Saturday, February 15.
Mississippi State vs Mississippi prediction
My best bet
Mississippi -4 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are just 3-6 straight up and 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games. One of the few victories they pulled off during that span came at home against the Mississippi Rebels on January 18, when they outlasted them in overtime.
These revenge spots tend to be profitable long-term in rivalry games — especially in relatively even matchups where home-court advantage can tip the balance. The Rebels also enter in better form, having won four of their last five, with their only defeat during that span coming against No. 1 Auburn.
The Bulldogs' biggest weakness is an inability to hit shots from deep or defend the arc. They are 14th in the SEC in both 3-point percentage (28.7%) and 3-point defense (36.8%) during conference play. That atrocious 3-point accuracy is particularly worrying as 43.4% of their shots come from long-range.
Meanwhile, the Rebels have a solid 35.5 3PT% and they limit SEC foes to 31.3% shooting from deep. They also turn the ball over at the lowest rate in the country while sitting 25th in opponent turnover rate, resulting in an incredible turnover margin of +6.2 per game.
That's more than enough for me to back Mississippi on the spread tonight.
Mississippi State vs Mississippi same-game parlay (SGP)
Mississippi -3.5
Sean Pedulla Over 1.5 threes made
Keshawn Murphy Over 7.5 rebounds
Sean Pedulla leads Mississippi in scoring and has drained at least a pair of 3-pointers in seven of his last nine games. The senior guard knocks down 2.5 threes per game at a 40% clip at home, and he'll take advantage of a Bulldogs squad that sits outside the Top 275 at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets.
One area where the Bulldogs have the edge is on the glass, with the Rebels ranking just 303rd in the country in rebounding rate. MSU big man Keshawn Murphy has snagged 8+ boards in three straight games and is coming off a 13-rebound performance against Florida.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mississippi State vs Mississippi odds
Mississippi State vs Mississippi live odds
Mississippi State vs Mississippi opening odds
- Spread: Mississippi State +4 | Mississippi -4
- Moneyline: Mississippi State +165 | Mississippi -200
- Over/Under: Over 147 | Under 147
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mississippi State vs Mississippi betting trend to know
The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Mississippi.
How to watch Mississippi State vs Mississippi
| Location | Sandy and John Black Pavilion, Oxford, MS |
| Date | Saturday, 2-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Mississippi State vs Mississippi key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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