Mississippi vs Georgia Odds, Picks and Predictions: Rebels Outlast Bulldogs in Athens

A pair of struggling SEC programs face off in NCAA basketball action on Tuesday as the Georgia Bulldogs host the Mississippi Rebels.

After a strong start to their season, the Rebels have gone 2-6 straight up and against the spread in their previous eight games while the Bulldogs have just one win in their last 10 tries.

College basketball odds have the Bulldogs installed as 2.5-point home favorites for this conference clash with the Over/Under at 148.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks for Mississippi vs. Georgia on March 5.

Mississippi vs Georgia best odds

Mississippi vs Georgia picks and predictions

The Georgia Bulldogs are 81st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, which is bad but not nearly as awful as the Mississippi Rebels at 141st. However, the Bulldogs are 13th in the SEC in opponent effective field goal percentage (54.2%) which is slightly worse than Mississippi's 53.9%. 

The Rebels also do a better job of forcing turnovers, defending the rim, and slowing opponents down in transition. Where the Rebels struggle on their own end is when it comes to defensive rebounding and defending the arc, ranking last in the conference in both categories.

However, the Bulldogs aren't built to take advantage of that, sitting outside the Top 250 in offensive rebounding rate on the season while shooting just 27.3% from deep over their last six games. 

When it comes down to it, both teams are awful defensively but one of them has significantly more firepower and that's the Rebels who are 35th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to Georgia who is just 105th.

The Bulldogs have just two double-digit scorers and both Noah Thomasson (12.8 ppg) and Jabri Abdur-Rahim (12.2 ppg) are inefficient, combining to shoot just 39.6% from the floor. Meanwhile, the Rebels have four players averaging more than 12 ppg, led by Matthew Murrell who puts up 17.0 ppg on 47/41/77 shooting splits. 

A big reason the Bulldogs are favored today is because of home-court advantage. However, they've lost their last five games at Stegeman Coliseum with an average scoring margin of -12.0 ppg. It's tough to back either side with how they've been playing lately but I'll take the team that can actually make shots catching points.

My best bet: Mississippi +2.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Mississippi vs Georgia same-game parlay

Mississippi +2.5

Matthew Murrell 20+ points

Noah Thomasson 3+ threes made

+1,000 at bet365

Murrell is a well-built guard that can score from every level. He should have a big night against a Bulldogs squad that struggles to defend and plays at a fast tempo. His scoring O/U is set at 17.5 but considering he's scored more than 20 points in three of his last five games, I'd rather take the 20+ milestone at +160.  

Thomasson is Georgia's best scorer but has gone just 4-22 (18%) from beyond the arc over the last three games. Since he's still attempting threes at a high rate and at a 35.3% clip this season, he should be due for positive regression against a Rebels side that's allowing opponents to shoot 37.1% from deep in conference play.

Keep in mind that before his recent three-game slump, Thomasson had gone 16-36 from deep (44.4%) over his previous four contests. With this leg paying out at +165, we've got ourselves a +1,000 SGP that has a decent chance of hitting if both teams defend as poorly as they have this season. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mississippi vs Georgia spread and Over/Under analysis

Neither the side nor the total have seen any movement. The line opened with Georgia at -2 or -2.5 and hasn't budged while the O/U has remained stagnant at 148.5. 

The Bulldogs outperformed low expectations at the start of the season but have hit a skid. They are just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games, though they've covered the spread in three of their last six contests. 

The Rebels looked fantastic at the start of the season, going 13-0 during their non-conference schedule. However, they've struggled lately, going 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games with both of their victories during that span coming against Missouri who is at the bottom of the SEC standings with an 0-16 record.

Mississippi vs Georgia betting trend to know

The Rebels are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against unranked opponents. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi vs. Georgia.

Mississippi vs Georgia game info

Mississippi vs Georgia key injuries

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