The Patriot League Tournament will be decided Wednesday night when the Navy Midshipmen travel to Washington, DC to face the American University Eagles in the championship game.
The Midshipmen defeated the Eagles twice during the regular season, including an eight-point win on the road just two weeks ago. Can they make it a three-peat and reach the tournament with a losing record, or will the conference’s top-ranked team clinch a spot?
Find out why I think the books are underestimating the total in my Navy vs. American predictions and college basketball picks for Wednesday, March 12.
Navy vs American prediction
Who will win Navy vs American?
Navy is set up to pull off an upset. While they’ll need to play extremely well, the Midshipmen have confidence from winning already on American’s home court and having swept the regular season series.
American also hasn’t looked particularly great in the Patriot League Tournament, needing a second-half comeback to narrowly defeat a poor Lafayette team and a second-half run to pull away from a Colgate team that had lost seven of its last 12 games.
Navy’s offense is clicking right now, and American is ranked 336th in offensive efficiency nationally over the last 10 games. I’ll back the Midshipmen to punch their ticket to the Big Dance.
My best bet
Over 131.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Navy Midshipmen had a rough stretch of games this season, as they won just two games between the final day of November and a loss to Bucknell on January 18. But one of the bright spots in that run of 12 games was an 81-58 thrashing at home over the American Eagles. Navy helped push the total Over by a single point as they went 25 of 41 inside the arc.
In their previous meeting at Bender Arena just a few weeks ago, the two teams combined for 128 points. But that game should’ve also gone Over its total of 132 points. That’s because after American’s layup with 4:55 remaining to tie the game at 56-56, the Eagles scored just four points the rest of the game.
In fact, that layup was one of only two field goals they made in the final 7:56 of the game. They would add a pair of free throws down the stretch, with a layup inside the final minute to make it a two-score game.
It wasn’t just a late-game drought that kept the game lower-scoring. American also had a first-half stretch of more than six minutes without scoring a single point. And the Midshipmen didn’t help, scoring just four points themselves in that same timespan.
One of the reasons I like this game to go Over is the fact that Navy’s offense has adapted to the game situation of late. The Midshipmen have shown over this five-game winning streak that they can win in multiple ways. In fact, their last two games of the tournament, both on the road, have seen them score better than 1.21 points per possession.
Against Boston University, they pounded the ball inside, making 22 of 37 shots inside the arc including 38 points in the pain. Against Bucknell, that wasn’t working—so they won the game at the charity stripe, posting an eye-popping free throw rate of 84% with 42 attempts compared to 50 official field goal attempts.
American defends the perimeter well, but opponents have shot 62.9% at the rim this season. Navy got 38 and 26 points in the paint, respectively, in its two wins over American. But the Midshipmen also struggle to defend the rim, with opponents shooting 61% on the season against them.
Navy’s eFG% and two-point percentage has been an issue at times this season, but a vastly improved free throw rate over these past few games has helped negate that. The Midshipmen have a free throw rate over 55% in three of their last four games, and none lower than 44.8% in that span. And while American tends not to let teams get to the line often, the Eagles gave up free throw rates of 41.8% and 66.7% in the losses to Navy.
With neither of these defenses performing exceptionally well of late, especially guarding the rim, I don’t think we see another game with long stretches without points. Throw in the urgency of an NCAA tournament bid, and the late-game fouls being more frequent to extend the contest, and you’ve got a perfect recipe for a sixth Over in Navy’s last seven games.
Navy vs American same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 131.5
Navy +4.5
Navy first half moneyline
As I mentioned earlier, I think Navy makes it a clean sweep and wins the Patriot League automatic bid, but I’ll play it safe here. Navy’s picked up an additional point on the spread in the morning hours, and I think the Eagles are getting too much credit here. The Midshipmen will cover, if not win outright.
American has struggled coming out of the gates in this tournament. The Eagles trailed Lafayette by 11 and Colgate by three at halftime, despite playing on their home court in both games. Toss in the fact that Navy led at the break in both meetings, and I’ll back the Midshipmen to be ahead when the teams head in for halftime.
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Navy vs American odds
Navy vs American live odds
Navy vs American opening odds
- Spread: Navy +4 (-110) | American -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Navy +155 | American -185
- Over/Under: Over 131.5 (-110) | Under 131.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Navy vs American betting trend to know
Navy has hit the moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.85 Units / 65% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Navy vs. American.
How to watch Navy vs American
| Location | Bender Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS Sports Network |
Navy vs American key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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