NC State vs Syracuse Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Wolfpack Fires at Will

The North Carolina State Wolfpack dodged an upset in Round 1 of the ACC Tournament bracket and now have to turn around and face the fast and furious Syracuse Orange just 24 hours later. 

North Carolina State found itself in a fight against Louisville in the tournament opener despite closing as big as a 10-point favorite, falling behind early and clawing its way back for a 94-85 victory without leading scorer D.J. Horner. Unsurprisingly, it hasn't exactly boosted the Wolfpack's conference tournament odds.

Syracuse has fresh legs after enjoying a Round 1 bye and will be a tough task for NC State, with the Orange pushing one of the quickest tempos in the country. The Orange edged the Wolfpack in both meetings this season, winning outright as underdogs in both victories.

I size up the spread and Over/Under total for this ACC Round 2 ruckus and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for NC State vs. Syracuse on Wednesday, March 13 as March Madness odds continue to crystallize.

NC State vs Syracuse best odds

NC State vs Syracuse picks and predictions

North Carolina State put together a gutty effort in the ACC tournament opener, amassing a season-high 94 points without top scorer D.J. Horne in the lineup to avoid an upset against Louisville.

The Wolfpack finished shooting 55% from the floor against one of the weaker defenses in the conference and while today’s tangle with Syracuse is a step up in competition, the Orange are only slightly less stingy than the Cardinals.

Syracuse ranks at the bottom of the ACC in many key defensive metrics, including effective field goal rate allowed and defending the 3-point arc. On the season, Syracuse allows almost 79 points away from the Carrier Dome.

A frenetic pace doesn’t help Syracuse’s cause on the defensive end, either. The Orange run one of the fastest tempos in the land, which means a surplus of possessions for foes. On average, opponents attempt just shy of 61 shots per game (294th).

The Wolfpack have their fingers crossed that Horne will be ready to go in Round 2 after he participated in warmups but was a last-second scratch versus UL. But even if he sits again, NC State has shown solid scoring depth with five players in double figures on Tuesday.

The Wolfpack run a balanced inside-out game, with strong post work from bulldozer D.J. Burns and steady outside shooting — two areas where the Syracuse defense struggles. According to ShotQuality Bets, the Orange rank 239th in defending the post-up and 300th or worse stopping 3-point sets in terms of points allowed per play.

Syracuse has leaned into its offense in the final weeks of ACC play, getting involved in several shootouts. Only two of its last 11 opponents scored fewer than 76 points, with the Orange allowing an average of 81.5 points per game in that span.

Game models for this matchup forecast between 78 and 83 points from NC State tonight and the game total has steamed up from 151.5 to as high as 153.5 across the industry. The Wolfpack’s team total is at 75.5 Over/Under — even with Horne’s status up in the air.

My best bet: NC State team total Over 75.5 (-120 at bet365)

NC State vs Syracuse same-game parlay

NC State team total Over 75.5

J.J. Starling Over 1.5 made threes

Casey Morsell Over 13.5 points

+475 at bet365

Syracuse is a bad defense and the Wolfpack come in with a hot hand after a sizzling second half versus Louisville.

J.J. Starling’s output has trimmed a bit with a decrease in minutes, but he shoots a high volume from beyond the arc and this game could turn into a shootout.

Casey Morsell had a monster game against UL and was very aggressive, picking up 13 of his 25 points from the foul line.

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NC State vs Syracuse spread and Over/Under analysis

Early odds opened NC State as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite for this Round 2 matchup, despite coming in with a rest disadvantage, losing both games to Syracuse this season, and the unknown status of not only star scorer D.J. Horne but also key reserve Dennis Parker Jr.

The market quickly pivoted, and the spread jumped the fence overnight as more books opened, with Syracuse sliding to as big as -2. As of Wednesday morning, Horne is once again a game-time decision.

The Wolfpack did not look good early on against Louisville, with the Cardinals exploding out of the gates. North Carolina State was able to chip a 12-point lead down to one by halftime and eventually pulled away in the final minute for a 94-85 victory. It was an impressive output without Horne and snapped a four-game losing skid.

The Wolfpack entered the postseason a bit underrated due to a challenging final stretch of schedule. North Carolina State not only played five of its final eight games on the road, but finished the season at North Carolina, versus Duke, and at Pitt — taking on three of the Top 4 seeds in eight days.

Syracuse enters the ACC tournament off a loss at Clemson in the season finale but played great basketball in the home stretch. Before the loss to the Tigers last weekend, the Orange strung together four straight wins, including an 87-83 win at NC State. 

The Orange’s offense is clicking at the right time, averaging more than 80 points over their last nine games (6-3 straight up, 4-5 against the spread), and faces a Wolfpack defense that gave up 85 points to a bad UL team as well as 81 points in the season finale at Pitt. 

Syracuse scored 87 points in Raleigh on February 20, shooting 51% from the field and 9-for-17 from beyond the arc. The Orange put up 77 points versus NC State at home back on January 27, holding off a Wolfpack charge in the second half to win 77-65 as 1-point home dogs. Syracuse is 6-9 SU and ATS on the road or at neutral sites.

Wednesday’s Over/Under total opened as low as 151.5 points and was bumped up to as high as 153.5 points. These ACC foes stayed below a closing total of 147.5 in their first meeting back in January but went Over the 152.5-point number in their most recent clash in late February.

North Carolina State blew through the closing total of 148.5 points in Tuesday’s shootout with Louisville and has gone Over in seven of its last nine games overall.

Syracuse is 18-12-1 Over/Under on the season, including a 9-6 O/U record outside the Carrier Dome (1-3 O/U at neutral sites). The Orange bring a five-game Over streak into the ACC tournament.

NC State vs Syracuse betting trend to know

North Carolina State has gone Over its Team Total in 20 of the past last 33 games (+5.30 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for NC State vs. Syracuse.

NC State vs Syracuse game info

NC State vs Syracuse key injuries

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