The North Carolina State Wolfpack will play their fourth game in four days when they face the Virginia Cavaliers in the ACC Tournament bracket semifinals on tonight.
The No. 10 seed Wolfpack, who backed into the postseason on a four-game losing skid, pulled off one of the biggest upsets of Championship Week — stunning No. 2 seed Duke as 11-point underdogs in Washington D.C. last night. Not only did this change Conference Tournament odds, but it could also have an impact on the March Madness odds.
Virginia’s path to the semis has been shorter but not much smoother. The No. 3 Cavaliers, who got an automatic bid to the quarterfinals, needed overtime to escape a pesky Boston College squad on Wednesday.
I dig into the spread and Over/Under total for this ACC tournament semifinal showdown and give my free college basketball picks for NC State vs. Virginia on March 15.
NC State vs Virginia best odds
NC State vs Virginia picks and predictions
This is an epically low total, which is par for the course when it comes to the soul-sucking style of basketball Virginia plays.
This Over/Under was sitting as low as 120.5 points and it is up to 121. Should it close there or shorter, it marks just the seventh total of 121 or less this entire college hoops season. And it’s no surprise the Cavaliers have been involved in three of those previous six diminutive Over/Unders.
The first was a 121-point number in non-conference play vs. West Virginia in the Fort Myers Tip-Off, which produced 110 collective points to stay Under back in November.
The other two tiny totals came when Virginia played ACC foe Notre Dame, with those games closing with Over/Unders of 113 and 116 points. Even with UVA’s methodical style and the Irish’s terrible offense, those two blind squirrels were able to find the Over nut in both matchups.
North Carolina State is not Notre Dame, especially right now. The Wolfpack are humming on offense, shooting a collective 47% from the floor for the tournament, including 27-for-57 from beyond the arc. What’s more, is that the points are coming from all over.
Kevin Keatt’s crew had five players in double figures in the 74-point effort against Duke, a score that should have been bigger given NC State left points on the foul line (11-for-20 FTA) and had a gimmie dunk turn into a technical foul in the final seconds. Strangely, that game also didn’t see a point from either team in the first 3:23.
Duke is a very good defensive team, ranking right alongside Virginia in the ACC pecking order in defensive efficiency and tempo. The Cavaliers play at a slower pace than the Blue Devils, which limits opponent's possessions, but even this total may be too low for UVA. The Cavaliers are 5-1 Over/Under in games with totals of 124 points or less this season.
Thursday’s slogfest vs. Boston College and the most recent meeting between NC State and UVA are dragging this number down.
The Eagles and Cavs combined for 126 points with overtime adding 12 more tallies to the regulation output of 114. Some of that has to do with BC getting to the foul line just four times, which meant little to no scoring with the clock stopped. The Eagles average 15.3 FTA per game on the season.
North Carolina State suffered a similar fate at Virginia on Jan. 24, recording just six total foul shots in the 59-53 loss in Charlottesville that stayed well below the total of 131 points.
The Wolfpack are playing a more aggressive style in the tournament and average almost 20 FTAs per game. They went 10 of 12 from the stripe in the 76-60 win over Virginia that topped the total of 128 points on Jan. 6. Those 76 points tied the most allowed by UVA during conference play this season.
As for Virginia’s offense, it’s nothing to write home about but did show signs of life in the final days of conference play. The Cavs posted 72 points in wins over Boston College and Georgia Tech and will get sucked into a much more up-and-down style against NC State tonight.
Oddsmakers have been dropping UVA totals into the low to mid 120s in the past month and that’s actually allowed Over value to bubble up, with the Cavaliers going 7-5 O/U in their last 12 games overall.
Game models for tonight’s semifinal forecast a final tally between 123 and 132 points, with the bulk of projections sitting at 125 points or higher.
My best bet: Over 121 (-110 at bet365)
NC State vs Virginia same-game parlay
Over 120.5
Reese Beekman 5+ assists
D.J. Burns Over 1.5 assists
This total is too low considering NC State’s scoring depth and pace. Virginia was able to bottle up a tired Boston College team but the Wolfpack are a different beast.
Beekman has played a bigger role as a distributor down the stretch of the season and is projected for more than six assists tonight.
The UVA defense will collapse on Burns inside and the big man has shown passing flare and an ability to find the open man, recording two or more dimes in five straight games, including four in the win over Duke.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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NC State vs Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis
Once Virginia pulled away from BC in overtime, oddsmakers got to work installing the No. 3 seed as a 4.5-point neutral-site favorite for this semifinal matchup with NC State. That spread has dropped to -3.5 and even -3 at some shops as of Friday morning.
The Wolfpack turned heads with their win over Duke last night, jumping out to an early lead and holding off the Blue Devils for the bulk of the quarterfinal clash. North Carolina State entered the ACC tournament underrated by the markets, lugging a four-game losing skid but playing one of the toughest closing schedules in the country.
The Wolfpack have proven their worth, especially with two very strong defensive efforts in the wins over Syracuse and Duke. North Carolina State checked the Blue Devils to 43% shooting and its third-lowest offensive output of the season.
And speaking of defense, Virginia leaned into its smoother work on that end of the floor against Boston College. The Eagles scored just 60 points — despite the overtime period — and had a 36% success from the field, with UVA holding BC to a combined 25 points in the second half/overtime.
The Cavaliers and Wolfpack split their two matchups in the regular season. NC State won 76-60 over UVA as a 1-point home favorite on January 6, tying the most points allowed by Virginia during conference play.
These foes needed overtime to settle up in their second meeting, with the Cavs winning 59-53 at home, pushing with the 6-point spread on Jan. 24. Virginia blew a 14-point lead a quarter of a way through the second half but was able to hang on for the victory.
The Over/Under total for this semifinal tilt hit the board at 120.5 points and is up to as high as 121.5 at some books, as of Friday morning. Virginia and NC State played Over the closing total of 128 points in Raleigh but stayed below the 131-point number despite OT in that matchup in Charlottesville.
The Wolfpack have played Under in their last two tournament wins after opening the postseason with a Over result against Miami. North Carolina State has stayed below the total in four of its last six games overall.
The Cavaliers have quietly been a Over winner in recent games, despite their stingy defense and plodding pace. They’re 7-5 O/U in their last dozen games but need the extra frame to go Over 124.5 O/U against Boston College last night.
NC State vs Virginia betting trend to know
The Cavaliers are 5-1 Over/Under in games with totals of 124 points or less this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for NC State vs. Virginia.
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NC State vs Virginia game info
| Location: | Capital One Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date: | Friday, March 15, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
NC State vs Virginia key injuries
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