It's round three of a storied college basketball rivalry when Duke and North Carolina face off.
However, that may be a backstory compared to what happened yesterday. And that's the Cooper Flagg injury.
The most highly regarded player in college basketball may not play here after a sprained ankle yesterday. Head coach John Scheyer called it "long," but we'll see.
Either way, the Tar Heels will be looking to finally win over their rival this season after getting here via a win against Wake Forest and stamping their tournament spot. It should be a battle.
Read on for my Duke vs. North Carolina college basketball picks for Friday, March 13th.
Who will win North Carolina vs Duke?
Duke. Even with the injuries, I still can't trust this inconsistent North Carolina team. The Flagg injury has more of an impact on the defensive side of the ball than anything for this matchup, but I still don't think this North Carolina team can outscore Duke. It has more regular, direct routes to scoring in the halfcourt.
North Carolina vs Duke prediction
My best bet: Kon Knueppel over 3.5 assists (+115 at bet365)
My Analysis:
Not only is the Duke Blue Devils likely to have no Flagg today, but there's also going to be a good chance they'll be without the services of defensive-stopper Maliq Brown.
The 6-foot-9 Brown was taken to a nearby hospital after dislocating his shoulder less than a week after returning from a different injury.
Suddenly, Duke looks much more mortal than they did a week ago.
Duke has played just 392 "non-garbage" possessions without the two players this season. That's certainly not insignificant and has increased the unknowns for this game.
However, it's also attracted me to the prop market, and there is potential value there.
I'm headed there for my best bet of Kon Knueppel over 3.5 assists. I was surprised to see this number open up at a plus-money price.
Knueppel sees a considerable boost in usage and assists rate with no Flagg.
Although the sample size is small, it's difficult to ignore an assist rate typically 12%, with a full complement of players on the floor jumping up to 32% without them.
It's also difficult to ignore what we saw yesterday when the two players went down. The ball was constantly in the freshman's hand, and he finished with 28 points and eight assists.
He won't have quite that type of production today, but he'll have enough.
The North Carolina Tar Heels defense is exploitable in a few areas. The one that jumps out the most in this matchup is big cuts and rolls, where they allow 1.01 points per possession.
Tre'von Spillers from Wake Forest scored almost all his buckets exclusively last night via this set and finished with 10.
Knueppel should profit from this in the assist category because he's the primary facilitator in such sets.
This number is just low, especially when you consider the price.
Knueppel came into the postseason having exceeded this number in two of the last three games of the year, with a full complement of players.
He also went over this once in the first matchup against the Tar Heels. I'll happily take this number and play it up to a -120 price point.
North Carolina vs Duke same-game parlay (SGP)
Kon Knueppel over 3.5 assists
Khaman Maluach 10+ points
Ven Allen Lubin 10+ points
As mentioned above, big cuts and rolls are among the best ways to attack the defense of North Carolina.
They did that effectively in the first two games, and they'll be doing it much more frequently tonight without Flagg.
Khaman Maluach is a massive lob threat against a smaller North Carolina front line, and he will likely be highly involved here.
One of Duke's biggest drop-offs without Flagg and Brown is defensively, particularly at the rim.
Without the pair, they have given up a point per possession this season, which is about as mediocre as it gets.
I like North Carolina to use Ven Allen Lubin's versatility around the rim to get some key buckets, much like they did in the most recent meeting.
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North Carolina vs Duke odds
North Carolina vs Duke live odds
North Carolina vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: North Carolina +7.5 (-110) | Duke -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: North Carolina (+270) | Duke (-340)
- Over/Under: Over 154.5 (-110) | Under 154.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
North Carolina vs Duke betting trend to know
North Carolina has hit the 1H Moneyline in 28 of their last 40 games (+11.50 Units / 3% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Duke.
How to watch North Carolina vs Duke
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Friday, 3-14-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
North Carolina vs Duke key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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