North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Odds, Picks and Predictions: No Blowout in Store

The North Carolina Tar Heels are 9-3 and have played arguably one of the most difficult non-conference schedules thus far, but what they haven’t done thus far is play in a hostile environment.

That changes tonight when they meet a very solid Pittsburgh Panthers program at Peterson Events Center for an important ACC clash and the Tar Heels' first true away game of the season. 

Please join me as I take a closer look at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks as I preview North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh on Tuesday, January 2.

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh best odds

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh picks and predictions

The "Pete" faithful haven’t had much reason to cheer the last couple of seasons, but they will be out in full force tonight when the North Carolina Tar Heels roll into town.

North Carolina has suited up 12 times this season, but tonight marks the first time the Tar Heels have faced a team in a hostile environment, which presents all sorts of challenges, no matter how many points a team is favored by or their ranking.

North Carolina hasn’t fared well this season away from Chapel Hill, going 2-3-0 in a neutral-court setting. Turnovers haven’t been that much of an issue, but the Tar Heels do allow 13.4 points per game from giveaways and face a Pittsburgh Panthers defense averaging 15.2 points from their opponent's miscues. 

Fifth-year senior Armando Bacot is averaging 12.8 points and 10.1 rebounds after opening the season with huge games against teams ranked 227 or fewer. Still, he leads the ACC in boards, and teammate R.J. Davis leads the conference in scoring. 

Pittsburgh is coming off a game it should’ve won at Syracuse. The Panthers shot 45% from the charity stripe, got edged out on the boards, and made 15 mistakes the Orange turned into 16 points. The excessive turnovers and points from turnovers in the 'Cuse game were aberrations for a Panthers side averaging just 10 turnovers and 9.2 points from them. I don’t see either being an issue tonight.

The Panthers need a victory, otherwise, they are 0-3 in a tough conference. They don’t want that, and they’ve played a tough schedule of their own. Their calling cards are defense and rebounding, and they do both extremely well. Four Panthers are in the ACC Top 50 in individual steals, three inside the Top 50 in rebounds, and the Tar Heels could have trouble in a loud gym with a raucous crowd cheering for a fourth consecutive victory over North Carolina.

My best bet: Pittsburgh +4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh same-game parlay

Pittsburgh +4.5

Under 157.5

+233 at FanDuel

Pitt is a solid defensive team. It rebounds well, forces turnovers, and scores nearly 16 points per game from opponents' miscues. North Carolina also relies on 16.2 points per game from turnovers and likely won’t get it against a disciplined Pitt offense. 

According to ShotQuality, the Tar Heels play some of the worst 3-point defense compared to a Panthers side draining 35% from downtown and coming off a horrid shooting night at Syracuse.  

Finally, the Pittsburgh defense covers the spread and keeps this matchup Under the total. Bacot got off to a fast start offensively but has cooled and won’t have an easy matchup tonight against Pitt forward Blake Hinson. Davis has drained 50% or better from downtown in three of his last five, but the Panthers play tremendous perimeter defense, and I see UNC struggling to score and won’t clear its 86.5-point average in its first true road test against a superior defense.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh spread and Over/Under analysis

North Carolina opened as low as -2 (-110) at Caesars and as high as -4.5 (-110) at bet365. FanDuel opened North Carolina at -2.5 (-110), and the public hammered that number to the -4.5 (-110) it now sits at every widely available US sportsbook. This is likely due to Pitt losing at Syracuse coupled with the famous nature of North Carolina. 

Maybe the public is unaware the Panthers defeated the Tar Heels twice last season by a combined three points, and this contest will likely be close as well. The reality is the big move changed my best bet from Under 158.5 (-110) that Caesars offers and instead take the Panthers to cover.

The Under is also on my card for tonight, though. We should expect to see a much better defensive effort than the one Pitt displayed in its road loss to Syracuse. Three of its last five have ended Under the total. The Under is 6-1-1 in Tar Heels last eight against a team with a winning straight-up record, and 158.5 is a big number for a conference matchup.

Finally, BetRivers has Pittsburgh (+152) on the board, and I’m leaning toward playing Pitt to pull off an upset. Pittsburgh has defeated North Carolina in five of their last six meetings and could catch the Tar Heels flat after their 105-60 win over visiting Charleston Southern. 

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know

Pittsburgh is 4-1-0 ATS over their past five meetings with North Carolina. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh.

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh game info

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh key injuries

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