The No. 13 Virginia Cavaliers welcome the North Carolina Tar Heels to Charlottesville in ACC action on Tuesday night.
The Tar Heels entered the college basketball season as national championship favorites but have fallen out of the AP Top 25 after a shaky start. They have yet to win a game on the road and oddsmakers expect that trend to continue with UNC installed as a 4.5-point underdog.
Can the Tar Heels snap that road skid or is there a better angle to consider when handicapping this matchup? I let you know with my best free North Carolina vs. Virginia college basketball picks and predictions for January 10.
North Carolina vs Virginia best odds
North Carolina vs Virginia picks and predictions
It's tough to trust either team on the spread with the Tar Heels 0-3 SU and ATS on the road and the Cavaliers covering just once in their last 10 games.
However, both teams have been money for Over bettors, with the O/U going 6-0 in North Carolina's last six games while cashing in three straight contests for Virginia.
The Cavaliers play at one of the slowest tempos in the country, which is why we're seeing a relatively low total but they rank 21st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom.
Virginia ranks 25th in the country in 3-point percentage (38%) with that number surging to 44.9% in its last three games. That's bad news for a UNC side that is 242nd in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (34.9%).
That said, the Tar Heels managed to drop 81 points against Notre Dame, who like UVA, plays at a very slow pace. UNC is 13th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and has scored at least 80 points in five of its last six games.
The Heels have also been more efficient from long range lately, and that positive regression was expected since they shot well from 3-point range last season but were ice-cold to begin this campaign.
My best bet: Over 132 (-110 at bet365)
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North Carolina vs Virginia spread analysis
Virginia was on fire to start this season and was at No. 2 in the AP Top 25 just a month ago after knocking off Baylor, Illinois, and Michigan. The Cavaliers have gone just 3-3 SU since, with a home loss to No. 5 Houston and a pair of narrow defeats on the road to No. 25 Miami and Pittsburgh.
They're coming off a 73-66 win against Syracuse where they had a massive 50-27 lead before the Orange knocked down some threes down the stretch to pull off the cover. That dropped the Cavs to just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.
This is a typical Tony Bennett-led squad that defends very well and plays at a snail's pace. The Cavaliers struggled last season due to poor offensive play but have made massive strides in that area and are 26th in the country in turnover rate while ranking 57th in effective field goal percentage (53.1%).
The Tar Heels came into this season as the No. 1 ranked team in the country after returning almost their entire rotation from the team that lost in the March Madness final last year. They had a four-game losing streak at the end of November which dropped them out of the AP Top 25 but they have since gone 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS).
They're fresh off an 81-64 victory against Notre Dame but that was in Chapel Hill where they are a perfect 8-0. They are just 0-3 SU and ATS on the road and in their most recent away contest they lost 76-74 to Pitt two weeks ago.
UNC is led by big man Armando Bacot, who averages 18.8 points and a conference-high 11.2 rebounds per game. Guards Caleb Love (16.9 ppg) and R.J. Davis (16.4 ppg) are also filling up the hoop but have been streaky from long range.
The Tar Heels have been inconsistent on defense and rank a modest 70th in adjusted defensive efficiency but they are coming off a strong effort against Notre Dame.
North Carolina vs Virginia Over/Under analysis
The total for this game opened at 136.5, but has since dropped to as low as 132. That said, I'm going against the line movement for the reasons outlined above.
This is a relatively high total for the Cavaliers, who rank just 360th in the country in adjusted tempo, but they have been extremely efficient and rank 38th in offensive efficiency with 107.9 points per 100 possessions. Virginia doesn't have a true go-to shot creator but it does have three players averaging more than 11 ppg in Kihei Clark, Armaan Franklin, and Jayden Gardner.
This is a much lower O/U than what we're usually used to seeing for the Tar Heels. Their O/U of 140 against defensively-stingy, slow-paced Iowa State was their previously lowest total of the season.
North Carolina might be without forward Pete Nance for the third game in a row as he recovers from a back injury. However, the Tar Heels offense has looked really sharp in his absence with highly-regarded freshman Seth Trimble slotting into the starting lineup and giving UNC a more versatile small-ball look.
They play at a much faster tempo than the Cavaliers and rank 48th in average length of possession (16.1 seconds).
North Carolina vs Virginia betting trend to know
Something has got to give with the Tar Heels, going 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games while the Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their previous six contests at home. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Virginia.
North Carolina vs Virginia game info
| Location: | John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 10, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
North Carolina vs Virginia key injuries
Virginia: None.
