An East Coast vs West Coast conference game? Correct, it's an East Coast vs. West Coast conference game. That's what we have this evening when UCLA travels to Maryland.
Surprisingly, this is the third meeting between these two schools in the past three seasons. Those two games were split, with Maryland grabbing a win in last year's contest in LA. It's been tough lately for the Bruins; UCLA has lost three of the previous four games, including two straight, fresh off a smashing at home against Michigan.
Conversely, Maryland has also dropped two consecutive games to conference opponents. It saw a westward road trip end sadly with losses with Washington and Oregon. They will amend that tonight as we dive into my UCLA vs. Maryland predictions.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Friday, January 10.
UCLA vs Maryland prediction
My best bet
Maryland -9.5 (+170 at bet365)
My analysis
Head Coach Mick Cronin said a lot about his players after losing to Nebraska, and none of it was good. A snippet gives you the picture.
"Here's what you do: You play the guys that will play hard and do what you tell them," Cronin said after the game. "It's really hard to coach people that are delusional. The hungry dog gets the bone. We've got guys that think they're way better than they are. They're nice kids. They're completely delusional about who they are."
I mention this to set a lay of the land. It's bleak right now for the UCLA Bruins, and they'll come into this game very much at a crossroads. Because of that, this game can produce a broad spectrum of outcomes: a resounding response or a throwing in of the towel. I believe it's the former. I have a whole range of thoughts on why this approach from Cronin is probably not the wisest in the NIL era. I'll save that. However, beyond the anecdotal vibes around the program, this is a rough matchup for UCLA.
My best bet targets the alternate market. I took the Maryland Terrapins to win by double-digits and grabbed the -9.5 spread at +170. I priced it right around +162, but given the reasons above, I think this was highly likely to produce an extreme result, so I'll happily bet this compared to the traditional spread.
On the floor, Maryland has a few notable offensive advantages, given some of UCLA's issues. I'm not sure those issues can be fixed overnight, either.
Michigan successfully picked up the game's pace and scored in transition. Michigan posted 1.24 points per possession in transition. The Wolverines scoring in transition against UCLA isn't exactly shocking, but how they were able to impose their will on the Bruins was. They sped UCLA up in a game that saw 72 possessions, tied to their highest of the year. North Carolina, who also wants to play this way, was able to do this.
It gives me the belief that a highly efficient Maryland transition offense can do this as well. That's hugely significant for a UCLA team in the bottom 20 percentile nationally in transition defense.
Elsewhere, Maryland can build on this advantage in the halfcourt on the backboard. The Terps have gotten some of its best halfcourt offense off second-chance points because of its dynamic inside presence. Between Julian Reese and Derik Queen, the Terps have two of the best defensive rebounders in the country. Both players own a rate over 20% on the backboard and should be able to show some of that tonight.
UCLA has been a solid rebounding group this season, ranking just above average, but this game will highlight a key difference in this trait: One team is elite at it, and the other is just good. I expect Maryland to run away against a potentially broken UCLA team.
UCLA vs Maryland same-game parlay
Maryland -9.5
Derik Queen over 6.5 rebounds
Since a quintessential aspect of my handicap is Maryland winning the war on the backboard, it would only make sense that I paired those rebounds with my best bet. The freshman and future first-round NBA draft pick, Derik Queen, has had some insane home/road splits. Most notable is his average of nearly two more rebounds on the backboard in home games vs. road ones. He's already succeeded against a similarly profiled team in Villanova when he grabbed 11. I expect him to control the glass tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UCLA vs Maryland odds
UCLA vs Maryland live odds
UCLA vs Maryland opening odds
- Spread: UCLA +4.5 | Maryland -4.5
- Moneyline: UCLA +195 | Maryland -240
- Over/Under: Over 139.5 | Under 139.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
UCLA vs Maryland betting trend to know
[Stat]. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCLA vs. Maryland.
How to watch UCLA vs Maryland
| Location: | Xfinity Center, College Park, MD |
| Date: | Friday, 1-10-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
UCLA vs Maryland key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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