The Minnesota Golden Gophers head to the Kohl Center for the Border Battle against the Wisconsin Badgers on Friday night.
The Gophers are the worst ATS team in the country but my Minnesota vs. Wisconsin predictions are backing them on a big spread in this rivalry game.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this Big Ten clash on January 10.
Minnesota vs Wisconsin prediction
My best bet
Minnesota +14 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
On the surface, it seems like the Wisconsin Badgers are the right side here. They are at No. 21 in the KenPom ratings and are at home while having gone 4-1 straight up and against the spread in their last five games. The Minnesota Golden Gophers are No. 109 per KenPom, already have three conference losses by 15+ points and are 2-11-2 ATS — the worst mark in the country.
As ugly as the Gophers season-long stats have been, it's worth mentioning that they didn't have point guard Mike Mitchell Jr. (12.8 ppg, 3.5 apg, 41 3PT%) for seven of their 15 games. Minnesota's offense has been significantly better with Mitchell on the floor alongside skilled big Dawson Garcia (18.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg).
Since Mitchell returned to the lineup on December 4, the Gophers are 55th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency per BartTorvik and 87th in effective field goal percentage (54%). Before that date, they were just 244th in adjusted offense and 236th in eFG% (48.2%).
This is a Gophers offense that passes extremely well (10th in assists per field goal made) and takes care of the ball (41st in turnover rate). They should find their spots against a Wisconsin squad that sits outside the Top 300 in opponent turnover rate and has allowed 77.8 ppg against high-major foes.
The Badgers are playing at an average tempo but since they've typically been among the slowest teams in the nation during the Greg Gard era, expect their pace to regress during conference play. Minnesota is 360th in the country in adjusted tempo and a sluggish pace will result in fewer possessions for Wisconsin to cover this hefty number.
Minnesota vs Wisconsin same-game parlay
Minnesota +14.5
Over 142
Steven Crowl Over 10.5 points
Even with a slow-as-molasses tempo in this game, I'm leaning towards the Over. After all, Minnesota's offense is far more efficient with Mitchell while Wisconsin is ninth in the country in adjusted offense and 20th in points per game (83.3). The Badgers are 11-4 O/U this season while the Gophers are 6-1 to the Over in their last seven games.
Wisconsin center Steven Crowl has dropped 14+ points in four-straight games. The Minnesota native has a history of excelling against the Gophers, scoring 17 or more points in three of the last four meetings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Minnesota vs Wisconsin odds
Minnesota vs Wisconsin live odds
Minnesota vs Wisconsin opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +13.5 | Wisconsin -13.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota +550 | Wisconsin -800
- Over/Under: Over 142 | Under 142
Odds courtesy of bet365
Minnesota vs Wisconsin betting trend to know
While Wisconsin won the last seven meetings between these rivals, Minnesota is 6-1 ATS during that span. Find more college basketball betting trends for Minnesota vs. Wisconsin.
How to watch Minnesota vs Wisconsin
| Location: | Kohl Center, Madison, WI |
| Date: | Friday, 1-10-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
Minnesota vs Wisconsin key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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