The North Texas Mean Green head to Stillwater tonight to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the quarterfinals of the National Invitation Tournament.
These teams also clashed in the NIT quarterfinals in 2023 with UNT winning 65-59 in overtime and my North Texas vs. Oklahoma State predictions expect the Mean Green to shine on defense again.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this NIT showdown on March 25, with tipoff at 9 p.m. ET.
Who will win North Texas vs Oklahoma State?
These schools are at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to pace. This contest will likely come down to which team can control the tempo and North Texas seems better equipped to do that.
I'm expecting the Mean Green to shut down Oklahoma State's attack and make this a low-scoring rock-fight which is where they excel. That has me leaning towards UNT on the moneyline as a short road underdog.
North Texas vs Oklahoma State prediction
My best bet: Oklahoma State team total Under 68.5 (-120 at bet365)
The Oklahoma State Cowboys like to push the pace but they aren't anywhere near efficient enough on offense for me to consider the Over on their team total.
The Cowboys are just 282nd in the country in effective field goal percentage (48.7%) while ranking 293rd in turnover rate. They could also be without third-leading scorer Marchelus Avery (11.4 ppg) who has missed the last two games with an undisclosed injury.
Sure, Oklahoma State plays at the 14th fastest pace in the country but the North Texas Mean Green play at the second-slowest tempo and have the ability to slow this game to a crawl.
North Texas is 26th in the country in opponent eFG% (47%) and does a good job of pressuring ball-handlers, ranking 38th in steals per possession.
The Mean Green are third in the country in scoring defense (60.4 ppg) and haven't allowed more than 68 points in a game since the start of the New Year.
The Cowboys have faced a higher level of competition in the Big 12 but Conference USA is one of the better mid-major leagues and UNT has shut down some quality teams. The Mean Green have held potent offenses like Utah State, UAB, and Memphis, in check and will add the poor shooting Cowboys to to that list.
North Texas vs Oklahoma State same-game parlay (SGP)
Oklahoma State team total Under 68.5
North Texas ML
Brenen Lorient Over 10.5 points
Brenen Lorient has been quiet on offense through the first two games of the NIT but North Texas needs him to step up. Before the tourney, the senior had put up double-digits in points in 16 of his previous 19 games and had averaged 13.3 ppg over that span.
The 6-foot-9 forward does a good job of attacking the rim and is in the top 20th percentile in post-up frequency. He should be able to attack inside against an OSU squad that is 284th in opponent 2-point percentage
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North Texas vs Oklahoma State odds
North Texas vs Oklahoma State live odds
North Texas vs Oklahoma State opening odds
- Spread: North Texas +1 | Oklahoma State -1
- Moneyline: North Texas -105 | Oklahoma State -115
- Over/Under: Over 138 | Under 138
Odds courtesy of bet365
North Texas vs Oklahoma State betting trend to know
The Mean Green have hit the first half Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.50 Units / 21% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for North Texas vs. Oklahoma State.
How to watch North Texas vs Oklahoma State
| Location | Gallagher-IBA Arena, Stillwater, OK |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-25-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
North Texas vs Oklahoma State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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