The Big Ten tournament tips off when the Northwestern Wildcats face the Minnesota Golden Gophers inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Wednesday afternoon.
The Wildcats are a feel-good story heading into the conference tournament, earning a spot in the postseason despite losing their two top players late in the schedule. Northwestern has leaned on its defense to make up for those missing pieces and I expect the Wildcats to keep fighting in the tournament opener.
Here are my best Northwestern vs. Minnesota predictions and college basketball picks for March 12.
Northwestern vs Minnesota prediction
Who will win Northwestern vs Minnesota?
I like Northwestern to win this opening game of the Big Ten tournament. The Wildcats have overcome crushing injuries thanks to great coaching and a commitment to defense. Minnesota isn't great on either end of the floor and got smoked at home by NU last month.
My best bet
Northwestern -3 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Northwestern Wildcats could have packed it in when standouts Brooks Barnhizer and Jalen Leach were lost to injury in February, taking more than 30 points of offense out of NU’s lineup. Still, head coach Chris Collins kept the team together, turning up the intensity on the other end of the floor to make up the difference.
Northwestern went from a bottom-half defensive team in the Big Ten to one of its stingiest down the stretch. The Wildcats upped their adjusted defensive efficiency rating to No. 3 in the conference over the final five games of the regular season, holding those foes to an average of 63.2 points on 40.1% shooting.
Those defensive efforts panned out to a 3-2 SU and ATS finish for Northwestern, including a 75-63 victory as a 2-point road underdog against the Minnesota Golden Gophers on February 25. The Wildcats held the Golden Gophers to 42% success from the floor and forced 13 turnovers, breaking the game open in the second half.
Minnesota enters the Big Ten tournament as the lowest-ranked offense among the 15 qualifiers and has struggled to score down the stretch. The Gophers haven’t cracked 70 points in any of their last seven contests, even with an overtime period in the season finale against Rutgers.
Defensively, Minnesota is also a mess. It relies on its offensive pace to slow down the overall game, but this is a Bottom-3 team in advanced defensive rating and watched NU shoot 49% from the field (including 9-for-18 from 3-point range) inside Williams Arena on Feb. 25.
Even with those missing pieces, Northwestern is a solid shooting team from the outside but thrives in flipping defense into offense. The Wildcats are good in transition and scoring points off turnovers, which means easier buckets. Minnesota doesn’t protect the perimeter well nor keep pace when opponents push tthe empo in transition.
Game models call for a NU victory on Wednesday, with most of those projections calling for a victory of three points or more. My number comes out to Northwestern by at least four points, and the matchup breakdown also gives a strong nod to the Wildcats.
Northwestern vs Minnesota same-game parlay (SGP)
Northwestern -2.5
K.J. Windham 10+ points
Dawson Garcia 15+ points
Northwestern’s defense anchors their offense and lifts them over Minnesota in the opening round.
Freshman Windham continues to step up as a scorer, dropping double digits on the Gophers.
Minnesota will be led by Garcia, who is projected for at least 15 points. He dropped 26 on NU in their last meeting.
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Northwestern vs Minnesota odds
Northwestern vs Minnesota live odds
Northwestern vs Minnesota opening odds
- Spread: Northwestern -3 | Minnesota +3
- Moneyline: Northwestern -165 | Minnesota +125
- Over/Under: Over 127.5 | Under 127.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Northwestern vs Minnesota betting trend to know
Minnesota has only covered the spread in 11 of its last 34 games (-12.15 units/-32% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Northwestern vs. Minnesota.
How to watch Northwestern vs Minnesota
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Northwestern vs Minnesota key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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