Oklahoma State vs UCF Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Knights Wrangle Cowboys in Opener

There are plenty of heavy hitters in the Big 12 Tournament bracket.

However, this tourney opens with a pair of teams that need to run the table to even get a spot in the March Madness odds table.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys and Central Florida Knights kick things off at 12:30 p.m. ET from the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, with the Knights pegged as 4-point favorites in the Conference Tournament odds.

Can the Cowboys break a five-game skid and go on an unlikely run? Read below for my free college basketball picks for Oklahoma State vs UCF on Tuesday, March 12.

Oklahoma State vs UCF best odds

Oklahoma State vs UCF picks and predictions

It’s going to take quite a Hail Mary from the Oklahoma State Cowboys to extend their season past Monday's opening-round matchup with the UCF Knights.

Tied for last in the Big 12 with a 4-14 record, Oklahoma State hasn’t tasted victory since a February 21 win over Cincinnati. One of the losses in its current five-game slide was to these same Knights, 77-71 in their lone meeting of the year. The Cowboys shot just 40.4% from the field, including a grim 5-for-20 mark from distance. 

It didn’t help that they allowed UCF, ranked dead last in the Big 12 in 3-point shooting, to hit 6-for-16 from beyond the arc.

UCF comes into the Big 12 Tournament on a winning note, knocking off the TCU Horned Frogs 79-77 in its season finale. This gave the Knights three wins in five games, including a 75-61 victory over then-23rd Texas Tech.

It’s even more impressive as their only two losses were by eight points each to top-ranked Houston and eighth-ranked Iowa State.

There’s a lot of grit to UCF with not a lot of polish, ranking outside the Top 300 in both field-goal shooting (42.1%) and 3-point shooting (31.3%). However, the Knights are inside the nation’s Top 50 in offensive rebounding, and inside the Top 70 in both free-throw attempts and makes.

Those were the glaring stats in the Knights’ head-to-head win. They owned a significant 40-27 rebounding edge, including doubling up the Cowboys on the offensive glass 14-7, while making hay at the stripe, making 27 freebies on 36 trips.

Of course, UCF’s bread-and-butter is defense, ranking 34th in opponent field-goal shooting while limiting teams to 67 points per game, which is Top 3 in the conference and 48th in the NCAA.

With the teams heading in opposite directions, look for the Knights to advance, with No. 5-seed BYU waiting in the wings.

My best bet: UCF -4 (-112 at DraftKings)

Oklahoma State vs UCF same-game parlay

UCF -4

Jaylin Sellers Over 14.5 points

Javon Small Under 1.5 made threes

+410 at DraftKings

Jaylin Sellers is sixth in the conference in scoring at 16 points per game, but the junior transfer from Ball State has struggled down the home stretch, failing to crack that number in the last six games.

However, offensive struggles can be advantageous, and it rings true here, as his scoring prop for Round 1 is at a makeable 14.5 points. Plugging in that number, Sellers would have crossed that figure twice in his last six, missing the mark by a single point once, and by a single bucket another time.

The Cowboys are second-last in scoring defense, so Sellers should have enough looks to crack this figure.

I’ll finish with Javon Small, who is 10th in the conference in scoring, but save for a brilliant 5-for-9 effort from 3-point range against BYU last game, has struggled to find his stroke from distance. BYU looks like the outlier performance, as before that outing, Small had gone Under his 1.5 makes total in five straight and six of seven. 

Included in that is a 0-for-1 effort against UCF. I like the Knights defense to limit Small on the big stage.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oklahoma State vs UCF spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread has not dipped below 3.5 points and has hit a ceiling of 4.5. The Knights are one of the better cover teams in the nation with an 18-12-0 against-the-spread mark. They also covered as 2-point road dogs against the Cowboys previously.

Oklahoma State is just 11-19-1 ATS and has failed to cover in each of its last five games.

The lowest total set in the matchup has been 136 points and it's gone as high as 137.5. OKST has seen the Over cash in 18 of its 31 games on the year.

Central Florida is hovering around .500, with the Over going 14-16-0 in its games this season.

Oklahoma State vs UCF betting trend to know

UCF is 7-3-0 ATS in its last 10 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oklahoma State vs. UCF.

Oklahoma State vs UCF game info

Oklahoma State vs UCF key injuries

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