Oregon vs Washington State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Ducks, Cougars Offenses Roll in Vegas

Dana Altman’s No. 4 seed Oregon Ducks (18-13) begin play after a first round bye as they take on the No. 5 seed Washington State Cougars (17-15) in the second round of the Pac-12 Tournament.

Altman is known for working magic this time of year. He’ll need to reach deep into his bag of tricks if the Ducks are to make a surprising run this time around.

The Cougars advanced with an easy 69-52 victory over Cal in the first round, and have now won seven straight games. 

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Oregon vs Washington State on Thursday, March 9.

Oregon vs Washington State best odds

Oregon vs Washington State picks and predictions

Dana Altman typically brings in a new cast of characters each year via the transfer portal. While it takes a while for his teams to gel, they usually come around toward the end of the season once the talent starts to coalesce. Will folks be waiting for things to come together all the way until the curtains close this season, or will the Ducks find another gear in March?

Oregon checks in at 41st overall in KenPom, ranking 28th in offensive efficiency and 69th in defensive efficiency. The Ducks will need a very strong showing in the Pac-12 Tournament if they hope to go dancing. 

Kyle Smith is a well-respect coach, and while he hasn’t brought this Washington State program to great success, the Cougars are now a steady presence in the Pac-12. They haven’t finished below .500 yet in three-plus seasons with him at the helm.

This year’s Cougars rank 54th overall in KenPom — 59th in offensive efficiency and 63rd in defensive efficiency. 

Both teams enter this contest on a winning streak. Oregon finished the regular season with three straight wins, albeit against the three worst teams (record-wise) in the conference — Oregon State, Cal, and Stanford. Washington State, meanwhile, has notched seven straight victories, including a 68-65 win over the Ducks on Feb. 19. 

Oregon got the best of the first matchup with a 74-60 win in Eugene all the way back on Dec. 1. 

One concern for me regarding the Ducks was the health of lead guard Will Richardson. The do-it-all guard is second on the team in scoring (12.5 ppg) and first in assists (5.2), but he was notably hobbled over the last few weeks of the season, and his output was limited in five straight single-digit outings. He played 37 minutes in the regular season finale with 10 points, four rebounds, and six assists, so he appears to be in better form entering the tournament. 

With both teams seemingly close to full strength, this is a tight game to call. Instead of picking a side, I’ll target the total. This one opened at 134.5, and I think the Over has a bit of value. Allow me to explain. 

Washington State loves to shoot the 3-ball. According to Haslametrics, the Cougars rank 43rd in 3-point attempt rate, and 17th in 3-point shooting against the average opponent. They make 8.9 triples per game (39th nationally) while converting at 36.5% (62nd). 

Oregon isn’t the best at defending the 3-point line, ranking 204th in 3-point defense (34.2%) while allowing 7.4 triples per game. Haslametrics ranks Oregon’s defense 249th in opponent 3-point attempt rate and 165th in 3-point defense against the average opponent. 

The Ducks are adept offensively, evidenced by their ranking of 28th nationally in adjusted efficiency (KenPom). They like to feed the ball down low to big man N’Faly Dante (13.5 ppg), and the opportunity to do so should be there against a Washington State defense ranking 243rd in near-proximity attempt rate allowed (Haslametrics). 

The Cougars’ defense hasn’t been nearly as good away from home. They allow just 64.8 ppg with a 39.8% field goal defense at home, but those numbers regress all the way to 69.9 ppg and 47.3% field goal defense on the road.

These two regular season meetings managed to squeak under the total, but I think there’s reason to expect a few more points when they meet in Las Vegas. I’d play the Over up to 135.5. 

My best bet: Over 133.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Oregon vs Washington State spread analysis

The spread opened Oregon -2.5, but quickly moved to -3 as of late Wednesday night. 

Washington State is 17-15 overall this season. The Cougars are led by Mouhamed Gueye, who is second on the team in scoring (14.5 ppg) and first in rebounding (8.6). He was a breakout star this year in the conference, and was given a chance to truly emerge with a bigger role. 

TJ Bamba leads the team in scoring with 15.7 ppg and is in fine form after posting a career-high 36 points against Washington in the regular season finale. He had 17 points in the first round against Cal. 

Oregon is 14-16-1 ATS this season. The Ducks are led by Dante and Richardson, while Jermaine Couisnard is the third player averaging double figures (13.0 ppg). 

This is a close handicap between the No. 4 and No. 5 seed. I believe that Oregon is the better team in a vacuum, but only just slightly. Washington State is in terrific form after rattling off seven straight victories, while Gueye and Bamba have continued to grow as the season goes on. 

I have to lean toward the Cougars catching points and being in such terrific form. 

Oregon vs Washington State Over/Under analysis

Washington State has been profitable to the Under this season at 20-12. In games played away from home, the Cougars are 12-7 to the Under. 

While Washington State trends to the Under, its opponent is the opposite. Oregon has trended to the Over at 17-14 this season. The Ducks have played three neutral site games, and the Over cashed in all three. 

The Pac-12 was a conference that trended to the Under for much of the regular season, but that’s not necessarily sure to continue in the conference tournament. We saw plenty of high-scoring games in Las Vegas last year, and while I don’t think this game becomes a shootout, I don’t think it would take a terrific shooting performance by either to team to reach 135 total points. 

Oregon’s defense is nothing to fear, ranking 69th in adjusted efficiency. Its primary weakness happens to be what Washington State does best — shooting the 3-ball. 

Washington State’s defense is pretty good, but its numbers haven’t been as solid against the upper teams in the conference. The last three times the Cougars faced a team in the Top 8 in the Pac-12, they allowed 84 points to Washington, 76 to UCLA, and 80 to USC.

Oregon vs Washington State betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in Oregon’s last five neutral site games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon vs. Washington State.

Oregon vs Washington State game info

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