Penn State vs Indiana Odds, Picks and Predictions: Lions Go Down Shooting

The Penn State Nittany Lions’ run to the Big Ten Tournament semifinals has underscored how competitive the conference was this year; two double-digit seeds reaching the weekend in Chicago.

But two of the Top 3 seeds are still lingering around the United Center, and the Indiana Hoosiers are likely to stop Penn State in its tracks, though the Lions have presumably notched themselves an NCAA berth with this week’s wins.

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Penn State vs. Indiana on Saturday, March 11, with tip set for 3:30 ET.

Penn State vs Indiana best odds

Penn State vs Indiana picks and predictions

The last Sunday of the regular season began with seven Big Ten teams tied at 11-8 in the conference, trailing only regular-season champion Purdue. Just two of them won that day: Indiana and Northwestern. Days like today are why those wins were so crucial, even if the Wildcats fell to Penn State on Friday.

The Hoosiers did not struggle much with Maryland, taking firm control of the game with 10 minutes to go and keeping the Terrapins at an arm’s length from there in a 70-60 win.

The Nittany Lions never had a chance at the double-bye on that Sunday, but right now, they‘re undoubtedly wishing they had one. Needing overtime to slip past Northwestern exacerbated fatigue that was already coming.

In the regular season, Penn State averaged 63.1 possessions per conference game, No 12 in the Big Ten. In the last two days, it has played 68 possessions against Illinois and 70 against Northwestern, two games that came down to the final moments. None of those possessions were relaxed. Every second was stressed, partly because the Illini simply would not give up.

If the Nittany Lions are not worn out already, Indiana is going to condemn their legs. The Hoosiers averaged 66.9 possessions per conference game, No. 3 in the Big Ten. That may not sound like much, but look at it this way: Indiana possessions are typically 2.5 seconds faster than Penn State’s. With only a 30-second shot clock, that kind of difference is noticeable. It creates a few extra chances each game and, more to this point, a few more 94-foot dashes up the court and back down it.

The Nittany Lions live and die by the three, shooting 39.4% from deep in Big Ten play and scoring 47.8% of their points from there. As their legs wear out, those shots will stop falling.

A short spread of 2.5 or 3.0 points favoring Indiana should then become very much within Indiana’s range. Thank that double-bye.

My best bet: Indiana -2.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Penn State vs Indiana spread analysis

Penn State has surged this last month, going 7-1 straight-up and 5-2-1 against the spread. Head coach Micah Shrewsberry has gotten the Nittany Lions onto what should be the right side of the bubble, poised to reach the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2011 and second time since 2001. That kind of late-season push deserves loud and public credit.

But a third game as a short underdog in three days would be a tough ask for anybody.

Penn State did rout Indiana in mid-January, winning at home 85-66, but it did so largely thanks to an absurd performance from deep, hitting 18 of 31 threes; 58.1%. It’s not as if the Hoosiers regularly gave up that kind of showing, holding conference foes to 32.8% from deep, No. 3 in the Big Ten. Rather, the Nittany Lions just got nuclear hot.

With weary legs today, that kind of performance will be hard to fathom.

Penn State shot worse than 36.5% from deep in only five of 20 regular-season conference games. It not only lost all five outright but also all five against the spread. The ATS failures came by an average of 9.4 points.

The Nittany Lions never stopped shooting, attempting 26.4 threes in those five games. With worn-out legs today, Penn State will keep chucking, but most of those shots should clang.

Penn State vs Indiana Over/Under analysis

This entire handicap is based around the Nittany Lions missing 15-20 shots from deep, squandering away nearly a third of their possessions. For that matter, Penn State was the worst offensive rebounding team in the Big Ten this year, as well as the worst at drawing fouls.

Live by the three, die by the three. It got the Nittany Lions to the weekend in Chicago and probably to the NCAA tournament. Now, it should end this run.

Indiana will then know it has to face either Big Ten champion Purdue or red-hot Ohio State on Sunday and thus feel no need to push the envelope. The Hoosiers should get an up-close look at tired legs this afternoon and have an idea of what to avoid to have the best chance at winning on Sunday.

Penn State vs Indiana betting trend to know

The Under is 5-2 in Indiana’s last seven games following a straight-up win. Find more college basketball betting trends for Penn State vs. Indiana.

Penn State vs Indiana game info

Penn State vs Indiana key injuries

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